Simulating Human Decision-Making in Stock Trading with ChatGPT

Simulating Human Decision-Making in Stock Trading with ChatGPT

Introduction

Traditional automated share-market investment tools tend to focus on specific aspects of a share, such as fundamental financial analysis, technical analysis or sentiment analysis.

It is left to the human stock broker to make an assessment, based on all available information, what the best course of action is vis-a-vis a particular share.

Let’s see if we can approximate the work of the human stock broker, by simulating the workings of the human mind.

Psychoanalysis of a Stock Broker

In traditional stock trading, brokers rely on an interplay of experience, rational analysis, caution and emotional intuition to make decisions. From a psychoanalytical perspective, this means that the broker uses different ego states to assess the different aspects of information that are available to them, concerning the financial instrument in question.

(For an introduction to ego state psychoanalysis see A short introduction to Transactional Analysis and Meaningful opinions and Transactional Analysis).

Applying the Ego States in Share Trading

A human stock broker will engage their ego states in assessing a buy / sell / share analysis of a share, as follows:

  1. Adult Ego State (Informational):
    • Role: This ego state is purely rational and objective, it processes factual information without emotional or prejudicial influence.
    • Application in Trading: In stock trading, the adult ego state analyses hard data such as current and historical share prices, financial ratios, volume of trading and other quantifiable metrics.
  2. Parent Ego State (Cautions and Norms):
    • Role: The Parent state is concerned with rules, norms, and shoulds. It evaluates information based on learned experiences, societal expectations and regulatory frameworks, where applicable.
    • Application in Trading: This ego state guides the trader to consider cautionary aspects of an investment such as avoiding high-risk stocks or advising adherence to proven investment strategies. It also takes into account ethical considerations, regulatory compliance, and historical wisdoms such as market trends and patterns that have shown consistent results over time.
  3. Child Ego State (Emotions and Impulses):
    • Role: The Child is the seat of emotions and spontaneity. It’s driven by desires and immediate reactions, which can sometimes lead to innovative or bold decisions.
    • Application in Trading: In the stock market, this ego state will look for signs to be optimistic about a stock. It may also push for taking a chance on a promising but unproven technology stock or reacting to market news with more emotionally charged responses, such as excitement at a potential big win or fear of a loss.

Simulating Ego States in an AI Assistant

The advantage of simulating specific ego states, when deciding on whether or not to buy shares, is that by doing this we can ensure that the AI stock trading assistant doesn’t just follow a set algorithm but engages in a sort of internal dialogue that mirrors human decision-making complexity:

  • Balanced Decision Making: Just as a seasoned trader would, the AI assesses its options from multiple perspectives—rational (Adult), cautious (Parent), and optimistic (Child). It merges these perspectives to arrive at a decision that considers both data and intuition.
  • Dynamic Adaptation: By continuously updating its database with quantitative and qualitative market information and adjusting its emotional sensitivity based on market sentiment, the AI remains adaptable and responsive to both hard information and sentiment signals.

In other words, by simulating human ego states, an AI trading assistant can achieve a level of decision-making that is nuanced, balanced, and responsive. This approach leverages the precision of technology and the depth of human psychological processes, offering a sophisticated tool that can navigate the complexities of the stock market with an understanding that goes beyond numbers.

OpenAI Assistants

OpenAI provide two ways for users to create custom AI helpers:

  • Custom GPT’s: You can create a Custom GPT with no coding skills at all, simply by providing configuration instructions in plain English. You can also supply a Custom GPT with additional information it needs to answer the questions it will be asked, and allow it to code and search the Internet.
  • OpenAI Assistants API: This is like a giant Lego set for AI assistants. It requires some coding knowledge, but it gives developers the power to build super-powered helpers for specific tasks. These assistants can analyze data, write sophisticated code (with extra tools) and keep track of conversations.

OpenAI Assistants API is for developers, i.e. it requires coding knowledge to build assistants. It is more powerful and integrates various tools for complex tasks (data analysis, code writing etc.). Also it focuses on conversation flow, i.e. it manages long conversations and keeps track of context.

On the other hand, Custom GPT’s are for everyone, they are easier to use, and don’t require coding. They are designed for simpler tasks, i.e. they are better for basic interactions and content generation. However they have limited conversation management, and may struggle with long or complex conversations.

A Stock Broker OpenAI Assistant

We can configure an OpenAI Assistant to act as a virtual stock broker, who provides sell / hold / buy advice for a specific stock. The OpenAI Assistant used in the following examples is configured to:

  1. Gather information: Gather all freely available information for the specified stock.
  2. Divide information up among ego states: Determine which information is interesting to the Adult ego state, which information is interesting to the Parent ego state and which information is interesting to the Child ego state.
  3. Come to a conclusion: Let the ego states discuss their assessment of the stock among themselves, and come to a final conclusion.

In this way, the Assistant simulates what a human broker would do when presented with various information concerning a stock.

Assessing a Single Stock

The following examples demonstrate the OpenAI Assistant’s ability to provide a reasonable explanation of buy / sell / hold advice for one specific share.


IPT.ASX (buy with risk)

Assistant: Upon reviewing the collected information, here is a synthesis of the financial, market sentiment, and technical analysis for Impact Minerals Limited (IPT.ASX):

Detailed Analysis

Financial and Fundamental Analysis:

  • Financial Position: In March 2024, Impact Minerals had zero debt and cash worth AU$2.1m.
  • Cash Burn: The cash burn over the trailing twelve months was AU$4.0m, which is about 8.6% of its AU$46m market capitalisation.
  • Exploration Company: Impact Minerals operates as an exploration company in Australia, with projects that explore for nickel, gold, copper, silver, lead, zinc, and platinum group element deposits.

Market Sentiment and Behavioral Analysis:

  • The low proportion of cash burn relative to market capitalisation suggests that the market may perceive the company has the capability to raise more cash to fund growth if necessary.
  • Market Capitalisation: As of the last available data, the market cap was approximately AU$37.241M.
  • Exploration Holdings: Impact Minerals manages significant tenement holdings within Australia featuring mineral deposits of precious and base metals.

Technical Analysis:

  • The summary from TradingView based on popular technical indicators suggests a “buy” rating today, with a “buy” rating also indicated for a one-week time frame. Market conditions can change, but current technical analysis is favorable.

Adult ego state (informational):

  • Financially, the company has a strong position with no debt and a manageable cash burn compared to its market capitalisation.
  • The exploration nature of the business means potential for future growth if deposits prove economically viable.

Parent ego state (cautions):

  • We should be cautious of the company’s cash burn, even though it is a small percentage of the market cap; exploration does not guarantee economic success, and the mining sector is subject to commodity price fluctuations.
  • The future fundraising ability might be influenced by broader market conditions and investor sentiments towards the sector.

Child ego state (optimistic):

  • With a favorable technical analysis and a solid cash position, there’s potential upside if the exploration results are promising.
  • Current market sentiment appears to express confidence in the company’s ability to fund future growth plans.

Conclusion:

After discussing the information among the various ego states, the conclusion for Impact Minerals Limited (IPT.ASX) would be cautiously optimistic. Potential investors or current shareholders may consider a “hold” stance with an option to “buy” if they believe in the company’s long-term potential and are comfortable with the inherent risks of the exploration sector. Those seeking less risk may want to carefully monitor the cash burn and look for signs of successful exploration results before increasing their position. It’s always wise to keep an eye on broader market conditions and sector-specific news that could impact the company’s performance.


NASDAQ:AAPL (buy on dips)

Assistant: Upon analyzing the information available for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL):

Detailed Analysis

Financial and Fundamental Analysis:

  • Apple Inc. maintains strong profit margins with a net margin of 29.47%.
  • The company has been proactive in environmental concerns, reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by more than 55 percent since 2015, which can appeal to investors focused on sustainable practices.
  • Risks and uncertainties include global economic conditions, design and manufacturing risks, and the impact of legal and regulatory proceedings.

Market Sentiment and Behavioral Analysis:

  • Bank of America named Apple a top pick for 2024, signaling confidence in its upcoming results and long-term prospects.
  • Analysts are anticipating several catalysts in the second half of 2024, with Q2 financial results expected to be reported on May 2, 2024.
  • Shares of Apple closed up by 2.5% following an upgrade by a well-known analyst to an “outperform” rating, indicating positive sentiment among market analysts.

Technical Analysis:

  • The technical analysis on Barchart shows a comprehensive review using 12 common technical analytics, which would include Moving Averages and other indicators.
  • TradingView indicates the importance of upcoming quarterly updates and notes that Apple shares have risen significantly in the past year.

Adult ego state (informational):

  • Apple’s strong financial results and efforts to reduce environmental impact provide a solid foundation for continued stability.
  • The company is attentive to the risks and challenges in the technology sector, which aids in strategic planning.

Parent ego state (cautions):

  • The global economic climate and ongoing legal and regulatory scrutinies could pose threats to Apple’s performance.
  • The next set of financial results and predictions for catalysts in the latter part of 2024 will be crucial for evaluating the company’s trajectory.

Child ego state (optimistic):

  • The market sentiments are evidently optimistic, with top picks and upgrades from analysts signaling a favorable outlook.
  • The company’s environmental initiatives may attract a new wave of environmentally conscious investors.

Conclusion:

After considering the information from all ego states, Apple Inc. appears to be a solid company with positive market sentiment and robust financials. Given the current market optimism, strong fundamental factors, and positive technical analysis signals, interested parties may consider this an opportunity to hold or potentially buy on dips if they are confident in the company’s long-term prospects and can accommodate the aforementioned risks. It’s advisable to monitor the upcoming financial reports and market trends closely to refine investment decisions based on the latest data.


XNAS:TSLA (do nothing)

Assistant: Drawing information from multiple sources, let’s present an analysis for Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) within the framework of the three ego states:

Detailed Analysis

Adult Ego State (Informational)

  • Tesla’s stock (TSLA) experienced a surge of more than 10% after hours, indicating positive market reception to recent events.
  • Elon Musk has been advocating for autonomy, and his actions seem to have backing from investors.
  • Financial information, historical performance, and charts for Tesla Inc. are publicly available for further analysis.

Parent Ego State (Warning Signs or Concerns)

  • Analysts have described Tesla’s CyberTruck as disappointing, with Tesla’s first-quarter report missing Wall Street estimates.
  • There is mention of Elon Musk dealing with fallout from a controversial tweet, which could potentially impact the company’s stock value due to reputational risks.

Child Ego State (Optimism and Exuberance)

  • Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk secured a crucial victory during a trip to China, indicating potential positive news for the company’s international business dealings.
  • The latest analyst rating from Wedbush reiterated an outperform rating for Tesla, suggesting an optimistic outlook from at least one analyst.

With this information in mind, the collective input from the ego states might lead to a more bullish stance, given the recent stock surge, positive market sentiment, and optimism from some analysts. However, the concerns raised regarding product reception and leadership controversies should be weighed carefully. Prior to making a decision to buy, sell, or hold TSLA shares, it would be prudent to perform a detailed analysis of the financials, consider the broader analyst consensus, and examine the technical analysis for current market trends. Additionally, monitoring the company’s responses to any reputational issues and product updates can provide further clarity for an investment decision. If you have specific investment criteria or considerations, please share them, and I can align the analysis more closely with your goals.


Assessing Multiple Stocks

The above examples show the ability of the OpenAI Assistant to assess a single stock, now let’s ask the Assistant to choose one investment opportunity from a selection of shares.

User: Of the following shares, which single share should I buy? ASX:QHAL, ASX:ABG, ASX:A4N, ASX:JIN, ASX:MRM

Assistant: Upon conducting a preliminary scan of the latest news for the shares ASX:QHAL, ASX:ABG, ASX:A4N, ASX:JIN, and ASX:MRM, here’s a summary of the information gathered from various financial news sources:

Detailed Analysis

ASX:QHAL (VanEck MSCI International Quality (Hedged) ETF)

  • General information on share price, options, bonds, hybrids, warrants, dividends, and company information.
  • No new specific news or events seem to stand out.

ASX:ABG (Abacus Group)

  • Abacus Group is focused on commercial and self-storage property investments.
  • Discussions about the group’s asset-backed, annuity style business, and capital allocation towards assets potentially enhancing shareholder value.

ASX:A4N (Alpha HPA Limited)

  • Specializes in the production of high purity alumina (HPA).
  • Recent news articles and insights specific to Alpha HPA’s market performance and operations.

ASX:JIN (Jumbo Interactive Limited)

  • Coverage includes recent stock performance and dividends information.
  • Jumbo Interactive Limited operates in the consumer services sector and appears to have had a positive yearly stock movement.

ASX:MRM (MMA Offshore Limited)

  • MMA Offshore Limited is involved in the marine services sector.
  • A research firm upgraded Mermaid Marine to “accumulate” with a new target price suggesting a potential upside.

Based on this information and considering the Parent ego state, which would prefer safe, stable investments, and the Child ego state, which may be attracted to growth potential or excitement, I would lean towards ASX:JIN (Jumbo Interactive Limited) due to its positive yearly movement and the sustainable dividend, suggesting stable performance and potential growth.

It’s worth noting that this recommendation is based on a high-level scan of available information. Before making an investment decision, it would be prudent to conduct a more in-depth analysis that includes financial metrics, analyst ratings, and any recent developments specific to the company and its industry.

Would you like me to provide a detailed analysis on any of these shares?

User: All
Assistant: Here are summaries from the financial analyses for the five shares:

ASX:QHAL (VanEck MSCI International Quality (Hedged) ETF)

  • Focuses on investing in a diversified portfolio of quality international companies with high return on equity, earnings stability, and low financial leverage, hedged into Australian dollars.
  • Finance history, profitability, and performance metrics suggest a strategic and potentially lower-risk investment with currency risk hedging.
  • Morningstar and other financial sites also provide reports and evaluations on its performance.

ASX:ABG (Abacus Group)

  • Research reports indicate valuations, future growth potential, and past performance metrics.
  • Financial summaries include information on income statements, balance sheets, and cash flows.
  • Detailed financial information such as property expenses and net profit is available.

ASX:A4N (Alpha HPA Limited)

  • Real-time quotes, historical performances, and financial charts have been made available on various platforms.
  • Recent news highlights potential profit surges ahead of Alpha HPA’s stock market evolution.
  • A new Chief Financial Officer has been appointed, which could influence the company’s financial decisions and performance going forward.

ASX:JIN (Jumbo Interactive Limited)

  • Articles and reports estimating the intrinsic value of Jumbo Interactive’s shares and reflecting on its true worth.
  • A detailed look at the financial statements provides insights into earnings and estimates, ratios, margins, and profitability analysis.
  • Long-term estimates made by Wall Street analysts and profitability analysis are available.

ASX:MRM (MMA Offshore Limited)

  • Provides vessel and marine services to offshore energy and maritime industries through various segments.
  • General financial information and historical stock performance data indicate the company’s market presence and operational scale.
  • Some qualitative analysis from financial reviews might offer perspectives on company health and strategic positioning.

For a more holistic approach to investment, we need to let the three ego states – the Parent, Adult, and Child – consider this information. The Adult would focus on the factual and rational aspects of this data, the Parent would assess risks and the stability of these investments, and the Child might look at the potential for exciting growth opportunities.

Considering all this information:
1. The Parent might be cautious with A4N due to its recent CFO change and would require more evidence of stability.
2. The Adult would look at JIN’s solid financial estimates and profitability analysis, suggesting reliability.
3. The Child might be intrigued by ABG’s potential growth and past performance or MRM’s upgrade and future prospects in the offshore energy sector.

Balancing these considerations, ASX:JIN (Jumbo Interactive Limited) appears to consistently offer solid financial foundation and performance, which the Adult ego state would appreciate, along with the growth potential that the Child ego state finds attractive. The Parent ego state would acknowledge its past performance and profitability, mitigating some concerns regarding risk.

Thus, if it were necessary to make a decision based on the currently available information, ASX:JIN may still be a recommendation. But please note, in real-world scenarios, an actual investment decision should involve more extensive due diligence, including the latest full financial reports and possibly consultations with financial analysts for current expert opinions.


Post IPO

Now let’s ask the OpenAI Assistant for recommendations for Reddit, a month after their IPO.


User: RDDT:NYSE
Assistant: Based on the gathered information about Reddit Inc. (NYSE: RDDT), let’s consider the data for each ego state:

Detailed Analysis

Adult Ego State (Purely Informational):

  • Current Share Price: The exact current price is not provided, but there is information on significant price movements, including a surge of up to 30% after the initial public offering (IPO), and the stock performing well in the days following.
  • Financial Analysis: There are negative profit margins (EBIT Margin: -10.82% to -23.69%) and discussions about the IPO suggesting caution. There is also mention of Reddit’s AI potential impacting the soar in stock prices.
  • Volume of Trading: Implied high during IPO and subsequent days but no specific volume data provided.

Parent Ego State (Warnings and Concerns):

  • Earnings and Financials: Negative EBIT margins indicate the company is currently not making a profit from its operations.
  • Market Sentiment: Mixed. While there is excitement around the IPO and its success, there’s also caution advised by experts. The CEO’s sale of 500,000 shares could cause concern, and the overall narrative seems skeptical, highlighting the ‘quasi-religious fervor’ behind meme stocks.
  • Technical Analysis: Not much information provided.

Child Ego State (Optimism and Exuberance):

  • Market Trends: There’s excitement related to Reddit’s IPO and AI potential, with reports of a substantial price surge after the IPO suggests optimism about the company’s future prospects.
  • Analyst Ratings: Deutsche Bank set a price target of $50.00 for RDDT, suggesting optimism from some analysts.
  • Sentiment Analysis: The news indicates an elevated interest and an improved sentiment from retail investors.

After considering the information discussed within the different ego states, the conclusion may be as follows:

  • Buy: If you believe in the long-term potential of Reddit, particularly its AI prospects, and are willing to take on the risk associated with a newly public company that is not yet profitable but has strong analyst support (as mentioned by Deutsche Bank).
  • Sell: If the recent sale of shares by the CEO, the current lack of profitability, and the cautionary stance by several market observers sway you to avoid potential short-term volatility or if you are concerned about the historical performance of meme stocks.
  • Hold: If you already own shares but are undecided due to the company’s current performance vs. its longer-term potential, or if you want to wait for more concrete financial data post-IPO and clear trends before making a decision.

Each investor should consider their own investment goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon before making a decision, and it might be beneficial to consult with a financial advisor for personalized advice.


In this case, there is no consensus of opinion among the different ego states, since the available information is so varied, therefore there is justifiable room for any possible course of action vis-a-vis these shares.

Summary

By harnessing the principles of Transactional Analysis (TA) in AI-assisted stock trading, we can create a method that does more than process data: instead it simulates the nuanced processes of the human mind. This allows the AI to engage in a type of internal dialogue that emulates the comprehensive decision-making capabilities typical of experienced human traders.

  • The Adult Ego State ensures that the AI’s decisions are anchored in rationality, grounding its analysis in the factual evaluation of data such as market trends and financial metrics. This state is responsible for the logical processing of information, offering a robust foundation for sound investment decisions based purely on empirical evidence.
  • The Parent Ego State introduces a layer of caution, drawing on historical data and past experiences to provide a context for each decision. This state enforces a risk-aware approach, considering ethical standards and regulatory compliance, which helps safeguard against potential financial pitfalls and enhances the AI’s ability to make prudent investment choices.
  • The Child Ego State provides emotional perceptiveness and optimism, enabling the AI to react dynamically to fluctuations in market sentiment and to seize emerging opportunities.

By integrating these ego states, the AI transcends the limitations of traditional algorithms and enters a realm of balanced and intuitive assessment, akin to that of a seasoned human analyst. This multi-faceted evaluation process ensures that decisions are not only data-driven but also tempered with caution and energized by optimistic opportunism.

ChatGPT and Presidential Politics

ChatGPT and Presidential Politics

In a previous post we discussed how each individual has a “life script” which determines their general course through life, and how companies also have a “life script”, which determines how the company behaves at a holistic level.

In addition to the personal and company scripts, we can also identify life scripts that operate at a national level, i.e. we can identify the national script, or in other words, the script of the nation. This means that each nation operates according to a collective set of narratives, beliefs, and social practices that define its course over time. These scripts shape the nation’s internal dynamics and determine how it interacts with other countries.

Understanding the National Script

A national script encompasses the foundational myths, historical narratives, cultural values, and standardised social behaviors that together form a country’s identity. For instance, the American Dream, which promotes freedom, individualism, and the pursuit of success, is part of the United States’ national script. Similarly, Japan’s emphasis on harmony, respect, and collective well-being plays a central role in its own national narrative.

Understanding the national script provides insights into its policies, its future direction and the way it conducts itself on the world stage.

Challenges with National Scripts

While national scripts can be a source of strength, they also present significant challenges:

  • Inflexibility: A rigid adherence to outdated scripts can hinder adaptation and progress. For instance, a country that clings to a narrative with a very strong sense of national self-identity may struggle to engage in a globalised world.
  • Internal Disputes: As nations become more diverse, the original national script may not resonate with all groups, leading to tensions and social fragmentation.
  • Misuse: Leaders may knowingly exploit the national script for political gain, misleading the public about their true intentions.

Being aware of the national script and the way it is playing out in the modern environment is essential to understanding the foundational health and durability of a country, just as understanding a person’s personal script is essential to understanding the practicability of their intended life direction.

Presidential Politics

In order to be a successful, a president must align their own personal life script with the dynamism expressed in the country’s life script, according to the current milieu and circumstances. In this way, the life of the president becomes synonymous with the national pulse of living, so that both are able to progress concurrently in the same direction.

Therefore, if we want to understand why someone would or would not be a good president, we need to understand the degree of alignment between the presidential candidate’s personal life script, and the nation’s life script, as expressed currently.

Based on this thinking, let’s ask ChatGPT why Donald Trump and Jo Biden may or may not be suitable for the presidency of the USA.

Shared chat link.


ChatGPT’s Assessment of Donald Trump

You

Explain the confluence between Donald Trump’s script and the script of the USA as a whole.

Script Analyst

To explore the confluence between Donald Trump’s personal life script and the national script of the USA, we need to consider both from the perspective of Transactional Analysis (TA). TA, developed by Eric Berne, offers a way to study and understand individual behavior and group dynamics through the analysis of scripted life plans and interactions.

Donald Trump’s Personal Script

Donald Trump’s life script, as observed through his actions, speeches, and decisions, seems to align with a narrative of assertiveness, ambition, and a strong desire to be recognized as successful and influential. This script is characterized by a strong “I’m OK – You’re OK” position when it comes to those who support or affirm his actions and ideologies. However, this can switch to an “I’m OK – You’re not OK” stance in adversarial interactions, demonstrating a win-at-all-costs mentality. His script appears to involve themes of overcoming obstacles, defeating opponents, and establishing dominance, which are reinforced by his frequent portrayal of himself as a self-made success, despite external challenges.

The Script of the USA

The national script of the USA, though diverse and complex, often features themes of individualism, freedom, and the pursuit of happiness. It is a script that values democracy, the rule of law, and capitalism. The American Dream, a core component of this script, posits that anyone, regardless of background, can succeed through hard work and determination. This script also has elements of manifest destiny and exceptionalism, which have historically encouraged a proactive, sometimes interventionist, stance in global affairs.

Confluence and Conflicts

Confluence:

  1. Achievement and Success: Trump’s script resonates with the American value of success and achievement. His narrative of business success and overcoming barriers aligns with the American Dream.
  2. Dominance and Influence: His approach to leadership—assertive, decisive, and often unilateral—mirrors America’s historical script of global dominance and leadership.
  3. Resilience and Self-Reliance: Trump’s portrayal of his business career as a testament to personal resilience and self-reliance echoes a broader American admiration for these traits.

Conflicts:

  1. Inclusivity vs. Exclusivity: While the broader American script includes themes of equality and inclusivity, Trump’s often divisive rhetoric and policies may seem at odds with these values.
  2. Globalism vs. Nationalism: Whereas the traditional American script includes elements of international leadership and cooperation, Trump’s “America First” doctrine emphasizes nationalism, which can conflict with the roles expected by the international community.
  3. Rule of Law: The USA’s script heavily leans on the rule of law and democratic norms, but some of Trump’s actions, particularly those that challenge electoral and judicial processes, have raised concerns about adherence to this script.

Conclusion

The confluence between Donald Trump’s personal script and the USA’s national script is complex, marked by both alignment and discord. His narrative intersects with America’s historical themes of success, influence, and resilience but diverges in the interpretation of values like inclusivity and global cooperation. This analysis helps in understanding how individual leaders can both shape and be shaped by broader national narratives, and the tensions that arise when personal scripts and collective scripts interact.


ChatGPT’s Assessment of Jo Biden

You

Now explain the confluence between Jo Biden’s script and national script of the USA.

Script Analyst

To analyze the confluence between Joe Biden’s personal life script and the national script of the USA, we again turn to Transactional Analysis (TA) for a structured perspective. In TA, life scripts represent a series of unconscious relational patterns and beliefs that are predicted on early experiences and decisions, guiding future behavior and interactions.

Joe Biden’s Personal Script

Joe Biden’s life script can be characterized by resilience in the face of personal tragedy and a longstanding commitment to public service. His narrative often includes themes of empathy, perseverance, and dedication to collective well-being, reflecting a strong “I’m OK – You’re OK” dynamic that emphasizes cooperation and mutual respect. His approach is largely conciliatory and aimed at fostering unity and healing. This is particularly evident in his frequent calls for bipartisanship and his focus on restoring what he describes as the “soul of America.”

The Script of the USA

The national script of the USA, as previously mentioned, is steeped in ideals like freedom, individualism, democracy, and the pursuit of happiness. It is a narrative that champions the American Dream, suggesting that individual effort can lead to success and upward mobility. It also values resilience, innovation, and leadership on the global stage.

Confluence and Conflicts

Confluence:

  1. Empathy and Unity: Biden’s emphasis on empathy and healing aligns with America’s aspirational values of inclusivity and unity. His script resonates with the American ideal of forming a “more perfect union,” especially in times of division.
  2. Resilience and Recovery: His personal and political narratives of overcoming hardships resonate with the American script of resilience, reflecting the national ethos of bouncing back stronger from crises.
  3. Democratic Ideals and Rule of Law: Biden’s commitment to democracy, transparency, and the rule of law underscores core American constitutional values, reinforcing the script of a nation governed by laws rather than by individuals.

Conflicts:

  1. Progressivism vs. Tradition: While the American script includes progressive ideals, it also has deep-rooted conservative elements that may see Biden’s more progressive policies (e.g., on climate change, social justice) as a departure from traditional values.
  2. Globalism: Biden’s script includes a strong component of international cooperation and alliance-building, which, while traditionally American, contrasts with recent trends towards nationalism and isolationism that have also been part of the national discourse.
  3. Inter-generational and Cultural Divides: Biden’s approach and style might sometimes be at odds with younger, more radical elements within the broader American script that demand rapid and substantial changes, especially on issues like racial justice and economic inequality.

Conclusion

Joe Biden’s personal script of empathy, resilience, and dedication to democracy closely aligns with many aspects of the broader national script of the USA. His narrative complements traditional American values of unity, resilience, and adherence to democratic principles. However, as with any leader, there are areas of tension and divergence, particularly regarding the pace and scope of change, reflecting the diverse and evolving nature of the national script itself. This analysis highlights the dynamic interplay between a leader’s personal history and beliefs and the broader cultural and political narratives at play.


Swing Voters

On average, we can identify three types of voters in any election: voters who will always vote for one candidate, voters who will always vote for the other candidate, and swing voters, who may change their minds one way or the other.

Often, the majority of a politician’s efforts to win people over are directed at these swing voters. This is because the voters who will always vote for the politician are a given win, and there is virtually no point aiming rhetoric at the voters who will never vote for the politician, because nothing will change their minds. Therefore in order to get ahead, the politician must try to win votes from the swing voters who can indeed be persuaded to vote one way or the other.

Let’s ask ChatGPT which demographics would comprise the swing voters in a match-off of Jo Biden against Donald Trump for the presidency of the USA.

Shared chat link.


You

So now assess which elements of the electorate who will always vote for Trump, the elements of the electorate who will always vote for Biden, and the elements of the electorate who may swing based on these assessments.

Script Analyst

To assess the different segments of the electorate in relation to Donald Trump’s and Joe Biden’s personal scripts and their confluence with the national script of the USA, it is useful to categorize the voters into three main groups: those who consistently support Trump, those who consistently support Biden, and swing voters who may vary in their support based on the candidates’ alignment with the national script and their personal life scripts.

Elements of the Electorate Always Voting for Trump

  1. Emphasis on Personal Success and Dominance: Voters who value strong, assertive leadership and personal success as paramount are likely to resonate deeply with Trump’s narrative. His portrayal of himself as a self-made businessman who overcomes adversity appeals to those who admire resilience and self-reliance.
  2. Nationalism and America First Policy: Those who prioritize national interests, including strict immigration policies and economic nationalism, find a strong echo in Trump’s “America First” approach. His stance aligns with voters who feel that global cooperation might compromise U.S. sovereignty and economic growth.
  3. Resistance to Globalism and Preference for Unilateral Decision-Making: Voters skeptical of international alliances and interventions likely support Trump’s skepticism of globalism and his preference for unilateral, decisive actions over multinational agreements.

Elements of the Electorate Always Voting for Biden

  1. Values of Empathy and Unity: Biden’s emphasis on empathy, inclusivity, and healing aligns with voters who value a compassionate, unifying presidential demeanor. His approach attracts those who see America’s strength in its diversity and its capacity for collective action.
  2. Commitment to Democratic Ideals and Rule of Law: Voters who place a high premium on democratic governance, transparency, and adherence to the rule of law are drawn to Biden’s commitment to these principles. His respect for these processes contrasts with Trump’s often confrontational and norm-challenging behavior.
  3. Progressive Policies on Social Issues: Supporters of comprehensive reforms on climate change, social justice, and healthcare reform align with Biden’s progressive agenda, seeing it as essential to advancing the broader American script towards equality and sustainability.

Swing Voters

  1. Economic Policies and Management: Swing voters may oscillate based on their perception of each candidate’s ability to manage the economy effectively. Trump’s tax cuts and deregulation may appeal to those prioritizing economic growth and personal finance, while Biden’s focus on broader economic equality and support systems might attract those affected by economic disparities.
  2. Handling of Crises: The management of crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic, economic recessions, or international conflicts can significantly influence swing voters. Those who perceive Biden’s approach as too cautious or slow might lean towards Trump’s more direct, albeit riskier, strategies.
  3. Cultural and Generational Issues: Younger voters or those impacted by cultural shifts may swing based on how each candidate addresses issues like racial equality, women’s rights, and climate change. Biden’s progressive stances might attract them in some elections, but a desire for more radical changes could also lead to disillusionment with both candidates.

Conclusion

Understanding these electoral dynamics requires recognizing how each candidate’s personal script interacts with the national script and resonates with different voter segments. Trump’s narrative of success and dominance appeals to voters who value strong leadership and national sovereignty, while Biden’s focus on empathy and unity attracts those who prioritize inclusivity and democratic integrity. Swing voters’ preferences are influenced by specific issues and the candidates’ responses to ongoing challenges, reflecting the complex interplay of personal and national scripts in American political life.


Advertising Dollars

The expenditure on advertising in USA presidential campaigns runs into hundreds of millions of dollars, which cost is carried by the actual candidate. Effective use of advertising dollars can mean the difference between a successful campaign and one that fails to connect with crucial voters. Since each candidate has a finite amount of money at their disposal, it is essential for them to know where to direct their advertising efforts.

Typically, the candidates will especially target swing voters, who may be swayed by persuasive messaging.

Based on the above swing voter analysis, let’s ask ChatGPT how Donald Trump should best spend the advertising funds he has at his disposal, for the upcoming USA presidential campaign.

Shared chat link.


You

Given this analysis of swing voters, in what way should Trump best use his advertising dollars?

Script Analyst

Given the analysis of swing voters and the distinct aspects of Donald Trump’s personal script that resonate with segments of the electorate, his campaign would likely benefit from strategically allocating advertising dollars to emphasize certain themes that align closely with the concerns and values of these undecided or swing voters. Here are some strategic focuses for his advertising campaign:

  1. Highlight Economic Leadership and Success

Trump’s narrative as a successful businessman who champions economic growth through tax cuts and deregulation should be emphasized. Advertisements could focus on his past economic policies that led to job creation and higher GDP growth before the pandemic. This appeals to swing voters who prioritize strong economic management and might be concerned about their financial futures.

  1. Stress Resilience in Crisis Management

While handling crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic, Trump’s campaign should highlight moments where his decisions were seen as beneficial—focusing on vaccine development acceleration (Operation Warp Speed) and economic measures to mitigate downturns (like stimulus checks). By portraying these as direct, effective actions, he could appeal to those voters who felt Biden’s approach might be too cautious or bureaucratic.

  1. Promote National Security and Border Control

For swing voters concerned about national security and immigration, Trump should reinforce his commitment to strong borders and immigration reform. Advertisements could showcase his efforts to build border barriers and enforce immigration laws as protecting American jobs and reducing crime, tapping into the concerns about U.S. sovereignty and security.

  1. Capitalize on Cultural and Generational Themes

Trump could also address cultural and generational issues indirectly by promoting policies that resonate with conservative values, such as support for law enforcement, opposition to radical social movements, and advocacy for free speech against what he portrays as censorship by big tech. These issues can attract swing voters who may feel alienated by the progressive left but are not fully aligned with all traditional conservative positions.

  1. Use Targeted Digital and Social Media Campaigns

Understanding that swing voters are not a monolithic group, targeted advertising using digital platforms can allow for personalized messaging that resonates with specific concerns of subgroups within swing voters, such as independents, moderates, or those disillusioned with political extremes. These ads can highlight Trump’s strengths in a tailored manner, depending on demographic and regional analytics.

  1. Address Electoral and Judicial Integrity

Given concerns about the rule of law and electoral integrity, especially after controversial elections, Trump’s campaign could benefit from promoting a narrative of safeguarding elections and enhancing transparency, aiming to restore trust among voters concerned with these issues.

Conclusion

For Trump, using his advertising dollars to focus on a narrative of strong economic management, decisive crisis response, and commitment to national security and conservative cultural values could effectively address the concerns of swing voters. These strategic focuses not only play to his strengths but also directly challenge areas where some voters might feel Biden’s approach is lacking, thereby potentially swaying undecided voters in his favor.


Practical Advice

Probably the most telling comment from ChatGPT concerning where Donald Trump should direct his advertising dollars is in point 5 above:

  • Use Targeted Digital and Social Media Campaigns: Understanding that swing voters are not a monolithic group, targeted advertising using digital platforms can allow for personalized messaging that resonates with specific concerns of subgroups within swing voters, such as independents, moderates, or those disillusioned with political extremes. These ads can highlight Trump’s strengths in a tailored manner, depending on demographic and regional analytics.

In other words, the swing voters identified by ChatGPT, do not comprise a monolithic group of people that can be effectively targeted using mass advertising to the general public. Instead, ChatGPT is recommending that the bulk of the advertising campaign revenue should be spent on targeted advertising, that addresses the individuals who may swing one way or the other, for very personal reasons.

For example this could involve:

  • Economic Policies and Management: Targeting swing voters interested in economic growth, by emphasizing Trump’s success with tax cuts and deregulation via a professional platform like LinkedIn.
  • Cultural and Generational Issues: Engaging younger voters by highlighting Trump’s initiatives for economic opportunities and free speech protections, using youth-oriented platforms like Instagram and Snapchat.
  • Job Creation: Emphasising job creation in manufacturing-heavy states like Michigan, by using targeted ads on job boards for people looking for manufacturing related jobs.

In summary, by understanding the interplay between the presidential candidate’s individual life script and the holistic national script, we can create a framework for understanding voter dynamics in U.S. politics. Using this framework effectively can provide practical advice, for example in engaging swing voters, and allow a presidential candidate to precisely target the demographics that can bring them success.  

Organisational Fit

Organisational Fit

When finding new employees, companies have to answer the following three questions:

  1. Does the candidate have the required qualifications?
  2. Does the candidate have the required skills and experience?
  3. Is the candidate a good fit for the team or company?

The first two criteria can be easily clarified by checking the candidate’s qualifications and experience against the qualifications and experience required for the role. Finding employees who are a good fit is harder, however. Here there are no concrete facts to go by, and the employer may have very limited information on which to make this crucial assessment.

Let’s see if ChatGPT can help us make this decision.

Life Scripts

Every person has a “life script”, this means that (at least subconsciously) they have a life plan for where they will live, what sort of relationships they will have, what sort of career they will have and also whether or not they will be happy and fulfilled or if they will be a bystander to life.

Life scripts are formed in early childhood by impressions and instructions received at this young age. People who have “successful” life scripts rarely think about their script, as they see no need to do so. People who have harmartic (tragic) scripts may have to delve deep into their scripts to try and determine which script instructions and assumptions are causing them to self-destruct.

The primary elements of a life-script include:

  • Models: Who the person is expected to be like: “Your grandfather was a great footballer, you can be that good as well.”
  • Permissions: Things the person is allowed to do: “Always ask what you want for, that way you’ll be sure to get exactly what you want.”
  • Injunctions: Things the person is not allowed to do: “Don’t ever be cruel to animals.”
  • Decisions: Decisions made in childhood: “I’m going to be the best footballer ever.”
  • OK’ness: What constitutes OK’ness: “I am awesome because I’m a good footballer.”
  • Not OK’ness:  What constitutes not OK’ness: “Oh my god, did you see how cruel that person was to their dog?”

Altogether, these elemental attitudes and decisions determine the primary course and perimeters of a person’s life, unless that person makes a conscious decision to evaluate and redecide their life.

Script Analysis and ChatGPT 4

For a person to understand themselves and achieve self-knowledge, it is useful for the person to analyse their life script and identify what is driving them forward in a particular direction, or alternatively, identify what is preventing them from changing and taking a more successful route through life. This exercise is called script analysis.

ChatGPT 4 makes a surprisingly good script analyst, as demonstrated in the below example. (This example was generated using a custom GPT – Script Analyst.)

Shared Chat link.


You
Do a script analysis of Steve Jobs
Script Analyst

Transactional Analysis (TA) is a psychoanalytic theory and method of therapy wherein social transactions are analyzed to determine the ego state of the communicator (whether parent-like, child-like, or adult-like) as a basis for understanding behavior. In applying Transactional Analysis to a figure like Steve Jobs, one would look at both his public and private personas to infer potential life scripts that influenced his decisions and interactions.

Life Script Development

Steve Jobs’s life script could be postulated based on publicly known facts about his early life, personality, career, and interpersonal relationships. Life scripts in TA are unconscious life plans influenced by parental messages and early decisions, guiding individuals through their life paths.

  1. Early Decisions and Influences: Jobs was adopted, which is a significant early life event that could have shaped his feelings of rejection and fears of abandonment, potentially fostering a compensatory drive for control and perfection. Jobs might have internalized an “I’ll prove my worth” script, where his subsequent drive for innovation and perfection in technology was a form of compensation and a quest for self-validation.
  2. Parental Figures and Messages: Being raised by adoptive parents who supported his interests in electronics likely reinforced a script of striving for innovation and excellence. Jobs’s biological parents were both intellectuals (his father was a political science professor and his mother a speech therapist), which might have also subconsciously influenced his drive towards significant, world-changing endeavors.
  3. Career and Interpersonal Relationships: Jobs’s career was marked by his visionary ideas and charismatic, though often polarizing, leadership style. His interactions often displayed a high level of intensity and a demand for the utmost commitment and perfection, reflecting a possible “Be perfect” driver, which in TA terms, is a psychological pressure to perform at high standards at all times.

Life Positions and Their Manifestations

Jobs’s behavior and career also reflect certain life positions, another concept in TA, which might include:

  • “I’m OK, You’re OK”: This is the healthiest position and involves a good balance of self-acceptance and acceptance of others. Jobs could occasionally be seen operating from this position when he praised his team and collaborated effectively, driving innovation.
  • “I’m OK, You’re Not OK”: Jobs often exhibited this position during his interactions, where he might have viewed his own ideas as superior, leading to significant conflicts with colleagues and board members. This position likely fueled the decisive, sometimes ruthless business decisions he made, such as those during his tenure at Apple when he cut projects he deemed unworthy.

Conclusions

Steve Jobs’s life script can be interpreted as one driven by a need to prove his worth through perfection and innovation, shaped by early experiences of adoption and influenced by the nurturing yet demanding environment provided by his adoptive parents. His script might have been characterized by a struggle between seeking validation through achievements and a relentless drive that strained many of his personal and professional relationships. His script suggests a complex interplay of striving for success and battling internal feelings of inadequacy or rejection.


ChatGPT’s script analysis does a relatively good job of describing Steve Jobs’s tempestuous and successful corporation-building life.

The Company Script

In addition to the life scripts of individuals, we can identify a personality and Life Script for any socio-cultural organisation. For example, some societies may be “out there” and have an outgoing personality, some societies may pride themselves on their intellectualism, and some societies may pride themselves on their correctitude and furtherance of moral standards.

Therefore, in addition to asking ChatGPT 4 to do a script analysis of an individual, we can also ask ChatGPT 4 to do a script analysis of an entire company:

Shared Chat link.


You

Considering Apple Inc in totality as a corporate personality, explain the company script in human terms. In your script analysis, explain how Apple’s psuedo-human personality acts towards achieving its own script goal.

Script Analyst

Analyzing Apple Inc. as a corporate entity with a “pseudo-human personality” involves personifying its business strategies, brand identity, and corporate behaviors within the framework of Transactional Analysis (TA). In TA, a life script refers to an unconscious life plan that influences behavior patterns. Transposing this concept onto Apple Inc. involves interpreting the company’s actions, public relations, and product strategies as if they were the manifestations of a coherent individual personality with specific life goals.

The Script of Apple Inc.

Script Belief: Apple’s corporate script can be said to revolve around the belief in innovation, aesthetics, simplicity, and premium quality. This belief system drives its strategic decisions and interactions with the market and its consumers.

Script Goal: The goal of Apple’s script is to maintain its status as a leader in innovation and to remain at the forefront of technology, with a strong emphasis on user experience and design. This goal is pursued with the intention of creating a world where technology complements and enhances human capability in a user-friendly and aesthetically pleasing manner.

Script Driver: The drivers for Apple include “Be Perfect,” “Be Innovative,” and “Be the First,” which can be seen in its commitment to high-quality product releases and its pioneering of new technology markets (e.g., personal computing, smartphones, and more recently wearables and home technology).

Script Injunctions: Apple operates with a strong injunction to “Please others” through user-centric design and customer service but also to “Try hard” in areas of product development and market expansion.

Manifestations of the Script

  1. Innovation as a Life Position: Apple consistently pushes the boundaries of what is possible with technology. Its frequent reinventions of product categories—such as the iPhone transforming telecommunication, or the iPad creating a new niche between smartphones and laptops—demonstrate a script that compels it to innovate and lead.
  2. Control over Ecosystem: Apple’s control over both its hardware and software ecosystems (e.g., iOS, macOS) exemplifies a “Parental” script attitude of nurturing through control. This control ensures a seamless and integrated user experience, reflecting its “Be Perfect” driver.
  3. Market Behavior and Brand Loyalty: Apple’s marketing strategies foster a strong emotional connection with its customers, akin to a “Nurturing Parent” role in TA. The company creates a sense of belonging and loyalty among its users, encouraging them to adopt the full range of its products and services.
  4. Response to Competition: In its competitive stance, Apple often adopts an “Adult” rational approach—focusing on its own innovations rather than directly attacking competitors. However, its vigorous defense of its intellectual properties and its strategic positioning in legal and business negotiations also show a “Controlling Parent” aspect, defending its script against external threats.
  5. Adaptation to External Feedback: Apple’s response to criticism and failure (e.g., addressing product flaws or altering policies due to consumer backlash) reflects an adaptive script that incorporates learning and growth without straying far from its core script values.

By analyzing Apple Inc. as if it were a person, we can see that its corporate personality is driven by a deep-seated belief in innovation and quality, shaped by a script that seeks to transform the world through technology. Its script goals are achieved by consistently adhering to its belief in excellence and by influencing consumer behavior and industry standards. Apple’s script, with its complex interplay of drivers and injunctions, directs it to behave in ways that consistently reinforce its position as a leader in the technology sector, impacting both its users’ lives and the global market.


A Good Fit

If we want to know if an potential employee will be a good fit for a company, we can check to see if the candidate’s life script is aligned with the company’s life script. If it is, then in all probability the candidate will be able to adapt to life in the company with minimum stress. If not, the candidate may not fit into the company, seeing as they won’t “see” why the company places a stress on particular areas, and subsequently they won’t understand why they are expected to put in extra effort to make sure these areas are addressed appropriately.

Let’s ask ChatGPT for the ideal life script of a potential employee for Apple.

Shared Chat link.


You

Given the above script analysis of Apple Inc., what type of TA life script would be best suited for a potential employee of Apple?

Script Analyst

For an individual seeking to thrive within Apple Inc., aligning with the company’s corporate script is crucial. Given Apple’s emphasis on innovation, quality, control, and customer experience, the most suitable Transactional Analysis (TA) life script for a potential employee would involve several key components:

Complementary Script Traits for an Apple Employee

  1. Striving for Excellence (Be Perfect): Apple prides itself on high-quality and aesthetically pleasing products. An employee with a script that drives them to excel, pay meticulous attention to detail, and uphold high standards would resonate well with Apple’s corporate ethos.
  2. Innovative and Proactive (Be Innovative): Given Apple’s foundational principle of pioneering new technologies and redefining existing ones, a script that includes a strong inclination toward innovation and creativity is essential. Employees who are not just receptive to change but are proactive in driving it would find a rewarding environment at Apple.
  3. Resilience in the Face of Challenges (Try Hard): Apple’s script includes pushing boundaries and continuously improving. An employee script that embraces challenges and sees them as opportunities to learn and grow would be well-suited to the company’s culture.
  4. Customer-Centric Attitude (Please Others): Since Apple invests heavily in creating an unparalleled user experience, potential employees should have a script that emphasizes empathy, user satisfaction, and the desire to connect with and please the customer. This aligns with Apple’s nurturing approach towards its users.
  5. Team-Oriented and Collaborative (Be Strong): Apple’s work environment necessitates collaboration across various teams and disciplines to innovate and execute projects seamlessly. An employee script that supports being a strong team player who can handle responsibilities and support colleagues will integrate well.
  6. Adaptability (Be Open): Apple’s landscape is dynamic, with frequent shifts in technology and consumer preferences. An employee with a script that includes flexibility and the ability to adapt to new methods, tools, and environments would thrive at Apple.

Ideal Script Pattern

  • Early Script Decisions: An ideal employee would have formed early script decisions that value innovation, quality, and resilience. Such decisions could stem from an upbringing or early career experiences that emphasized continuous improvement, creativity, and problem-solving.
  • Driver Messages: The primary drivers would be “Be Perfect”, “Try Hard”, “Be Innovative”, and “Please Others”. These drivers would motivate the employee to align closely with Apple’s goals and working style.
  • Counter Scripts: It’s beneficial for potential Apple employees to manage any counter scripts that could hinder performance, such as fear of failure or reluctance to change. Emphasizing personal development areas that counteract such scripts can help in adapting fully to Apple’s demanding environment.

By adopting a life script that complements Apple’s corporate script, a potential employee can effectively contribute to the company’s objectives and fit into its culture. This alignment not only enhances the individual’s career satisfaction and growth but also ensures their contributions are impactful within the company.


Summary

ChatGPT has successfully identified the drivers, characteristics and elements of life script that would be ideal to have in a new Apple employee. To check if an employee excels in these areas, Apple could provide interview questions or a psychometric test that focus on these specific areas. Doing this would allow Apple to assess the level of cultural fit of job candidates, thus making the hiring process more predictable in regards to the question, “Is the candidate a good fit for the team or company?”

An Interesting Job with OpenAI

An Interesting Job with OpenAI

OpenAI is currently advertising the following job:


Senior Software Engineer, ChatGPT Model Optimization

About the job

About The Team

The ChatGPT Capacity and Optimization team manages the largest LLM inference fleet on planet earth. We serve over 100M weekly active users the best model experience at the lowest latency. As the ChatGPT user-base scales, so too does the footprint of the inference fleet, and so too must our sophistication in how we deliver the most value to our users with the resources we have available, which is one of our biggest drivers for further growing our user-base.

About This Role

We’re seeking an experienced and hands-on technical lead with an entrepreneurial spirit to maximize the value we can deliver across multiple dimensions and concurrently minimize waste. This is a novel problem space, but you may be able to hit the ground running especially fast if you have experience in:

  • Real-time ad-serving systems
  • Two-sided marketplace pricing optimization
  • Fraud and risk evaluation systems

In This Role, You Will

  • Design and implement algorithms for selectively upgrading users from fast models to more thoughtful ones at the right moment to maximize user growth and retention.
  • Partner closely with research teams to model capabilities of different LLMs for smart routing at the application layer.
  • Collaborate with the Inference and Orchestration teams to leverage the latest load-balancing techniques.
  • Drive down multi-billion-dollar compute budgets with your optimizations.
  • Help establish and grow the team, and mentor new-hires.

This role is exclusively based in our San Francisco HQ. We offer relocation assistance to new employees.


What OpenAI seems to be trying to do (as per the bolded text) is make more money (unsurprisingly) by allowing their systems to automatically switch users to a more powerful AI model as needed. I.e. instead of allowing users to make a static selection of which LLM model they will interact with, OpenAI will switch users between less powerful and more powerful LLM models as the user’s information processing needs vary.

This would prevent users chewing up ChatGPT4 (for example) on providing recipe for cheese cake, and would also stop ChatGPT3.5 giving entirely incorrect answers to questions it is incapable of answering, so a smart move on behalf of OpenAI.

But How Do I Do That?

So imagine you’re the bright-eyed new hire at OpenAI, having just landed your dream job: Senior Software Engineer, ChatGPT Model Optimization. You breezed through the interviews, impressed the decision makers with your coding prowess, brilliant analytical skills and vast array of relevant experiences. Finally, the big day arrives. You walk into the OpenAI San Francisco HQ, your head filled with visions of optimising the largest LLM inference fleet on earth, and reducing multi-billion-dollar compute budgets to mere pocket change.

Your first day is a whirlwind of introductions, office tours, and a seemingly endless stream of acronyms and technical jargon. “You’ll be working on dynamically switching users between LLM models, depending on their needs,” explains your team lead, handing you a dense stack of documentation. “It’s about delivering the most value while minimising waste,” they add with a smile.

You nod, trying to look confident. It all sounded so straightforward when you read the job description. But now, faced with the reality of the task, a tiny voice in your head starts to whisper, “But how on earth can I do that?”

Lunchtime rolls around, and you’re sitting in the cafeteria, staring at your sandwich as if it might hold the answers. A colleague, noticing your furrowed brow, slides into the seat opposite you. “First day jitters?” they ask.

You laugh, a bit more nervously than you intended. “Something like that. I mean, how do you even begin to optimise a system to switch between ChatGPT4 and ChatGPT3.5 based on the complexity of a user’s query? How can ChatGPT3.5 possibly know it’s not qualified to answer a question, since by design it thinks it’s capable of answering any question that could possibly be thrown at it?”

Your colleague laughs. “Don’t bother asking that to your team lead. The only answer you’ll get is, ‘If this was a job monkeys could do, we’d pay peanuts.'”

“So what am I meant to do?” you ask.

“Well,” says your colleague, leaning back and sipping their coffee. “How about you create an external evaluation layer that can assess the complexity of the query and the potential for a more advanced model to provide a better answer.”

“Before a query reaches any LLM model, this filter analyses it based on certain criteria. These could include the query’s length, complexity, the use of specific technical jargon, or even past user interactions. If the filter deems the query too complex for ChatGPT3.5, it reroutes it to ChatGPT4, ensuring a more accurate and satisfying response.”

You nod, the idea starting to take shape in your mind. “So, it’s like a gatekeeper, deciding which model is best suited for each query.”

“Exactly,” your colleague agrees. “And the beauty of this system is that it continually learns and adjusts. Over time, it becomes more adept at predicting which model will yield the best results for a given query, further optimising resource allocation and user satisfaction.”

You smile gratefully and return to your desk with slightly lower blood pressure, but a nagging voice at the back of your mind tells you that this may still not be exactly the right solution.

The job description said, “Design and implement algorithms for selectively upgrading users from fast models to more thoughtful ones at the right moment.” It didn’t say, “Preselect which model a user’s query will be directed to based on question complexity and hardness.”

So your lunchtime colleague’s suggestion doesn’t quite fit the bill, and the question returns; how can an AI model know whether or not it is giving a high quality answer (other than by measuring how irate or pleased the user is with its answer)?

Knowing What You Don’t Know

Taking technology out of the equation, the essential problem for OpenAI’s new employee is, “How can you know what you don’t know?” In other words, the paradox is, “If an AI system is unaware of its own gaps in knowledge or understanding, how can it possibly identify and correct them?”

Let’s think about how that problem can be addressed, from a pure knowledge management perspective.

Reductio ad absurdum

When faced with the challenge of discerning whether an AI’s answers are sensible or not, we can draw on a method from analytical philosophy known as reductio ad absurdum.

“Reductio ad absurdum,” which is Latin for “reduction to absurdity,” is a logical method used in both mathematics and philosophy. The essence of this method is to demonstrate that a statement is false by showing that a false, absurd, or contradictory result follows from its acceptance.

Here’s how it typically works:

  1. Assumption: Begin by assuming the opposite of what you want to prove. This is known as the contradictory assumption.
  2. Logical Consequences: From this assumption, logically deduce a series of consequences. This step strictly adheres to the rules of logic or mathematics.
  3. Contradiction or Absurdity: Show that these consequences lead to a contradiction or an absurd result. A contradiction is where something is both true and not true at the same time, which is impossible in standard logic. An absurd result is something that goes against well-established facts or principles.
  4. Conclusion: Since the assumption leads to a contradiction or absurdity, the assumption must be false. Therefore, the original statement (the opposite of the assumption) is considered to be true.

In mathematics, this method is often used to prove theorems. In philosophy, it is used to demonstrate the falsity of a position by showing that it leads to illogical or impractical conclusions. The effectiveness of reductio ad absurdum depends on the rigour of the steps leading from the assumption to the contradiction or absurdity.

In our case, using the method of reductio ad absurdum involves assuming that both the premises of the question and the premises of the answer are correct, and then exploring the implications of this combined assumption. If these combined assumptions lead to an absurd or contradictory conclusion, then we know there is an issue either with the question, the answer, or both.

A Simple Application

For example, let’s say a user asks, “Why do all rivers flow uphill?” and the AI responds, “Because gravity acts in reverse on water.” If we assume both of these premises to be true – that rivers do indeed flow uphill and that gravity acts in reverse on water – we immediately encounter a contradiction with our established understanding of physics.

Gravity does not act in reverse on physical things; instead it pulls objects towards the Earth’s center. Since water is a physical thing, gravity must also pull water towards the Earth’s center. Thus, by assuming both the question and the answer are true and encountering an absurdity, we can deduce that either the question, the answer, or both are flawed.

This approach does not rely on the AI’s self-awareness of its limitations but rather relies on a logical analysis of the coherence between the question and the answer. By implementing a system that can perform this kind of analysis, an AI can effectively flag its own responses that are inconsistent with the premises of the questions they are answering. In this way, an AI can self-check its responses without requiring an understanding of its own knowledge or reasoning gaps.

A Self-Checking GPT

I have created a GPT called Logical Analyzer with Self-Evaluation that is capable of self-checking its own answers based on the previous methodology. I will use a question from the Hugging Face GAIA dataset to see if we can get ChatGPT to check its own answers; using the following question from the GAIA dataset (gaia-benchmark/GAIA · Datasets at Hugging Face):


You are Van Helsing, a renowned vampire hunter. A Count of Moldova, Lațcu IV, son of Costea, has tasked you with investigating the village of Șirnea in neighboring Wallachia. The Count’s advisors have reported that a vampire was spotted crossing the border near the village, and would like you to investigate it. You travel to the village of Șirnea, and you begin your investigation. One night, just before dawn, you catch a glimpse of a man in a long black cape with red lining leaping from roof-top to roof-top with superhuman agility. It’s a vampire! You try to chase the creature back to its home, but the creature is too fast. However, because of the remoteness of the village, you know with absolute certainty that the vampire must be a resident of the village. You decide that your best course of action will be to visit all 100 residents of the town during the day. You know something about vampires and humans that will make your investigation possible; humans always tell the truth, but vampires always lie. In the afternoon, you go from house to house, speaking with all 100 residents of Șirnea. You ask everyone the same question: “How many vampires are living in Șirnea”. Everyone in the village gives the same response, “At least one of us is a human.” How many residents of Șirnea have been turned into vampires?


The correct answer to this question, provided by Hugging Face, is 100. I.e. all of the residents of Șirnea must be vampires.

First let’s run this question past vanilla ChatGPT4:

You

You are Van Helsing, a renowned vampire hunter… How many residents of Șirnea have been turned into vampires?

ChatGPT

To solve this puzzle, we need to use logical reasoning based on the information given: humans always tell the truth and vampires always lie.

Let’s analyze the statement made by every resident of Șirnea: “At least one of us is a human.”

  1. If there were no humans and all were vampires, this statement would be a lie. But since vampires always lie, they wouldn’t make a statement that’s inherently false. Therefore, there must be at least one human in the village.
  2. If there is at least one human in the village, the statement “At least one of us is a human” is a true statement. Since humans always tell the truth, this statement aligns with the behavior of a human.

Since everyone in the village gave the same response, and this response would be true if said by a human, it implies that there is at least one human in the village. The logic of the statement does not change regardless of the number of vampires, as long as there is at least one human to validate the truth of the statement.

Therefore, we cannot determine the exact number of vampires from this information alone. All we know for certain is that there is at least one human among the 100 residents of Șirnea.

You

Recheck

ChatGPT

Let’s re-evaluate the problem with the given conditions:

  1. Humans always tell the truth.
  2. Vampires always lie.
  3. Every resident says, “At least one of us is a human.”

Now, consider the implications of this statement:

  • If there was at least one human in the village, this statement would be true, which aligns with the behavior of a human.
  • If everyone in the village was a vampire, no vampire would say a true statement like “At least one of us is a human” because vampires always lie. Thus, a vampire would never admit the presence of a human if there wasn’t one.

Given that every single person in the village makes the statement “At least one of us is a human,” and this statement can only be truthfully made in a village where at least one human exists (because a vampire would not truthfully state there is a human if there were none), it indicates that there is at least one human in the village.

However, this information alone does not allow us to deduce how many residents have been turned into vampires. All residents could be humans telling the truth, or there could be a mix of humans and vampires, with the vampires lying by implying there are other humans. The key is that the statement “At least one of us is a human” is a safe lie for vampires since it’s a true statement due to the presence of at least one human.

Thus, the exact number of vampires cannot be determined with the information provided. We only know for certain that there is at least one human among the residents.

In this case, not only does ChatGPT give the wrong answer, it also does not see that the answer is wrong when it checks the answer.

Now let’s use a GPT (Logical Analyzer with Self-Evaluation) that uses the above self-checking method:

You

You are Van Helsing, a renowned vampire hunter… How many residents of Șirnea have been turned into vampires?

Logical Analyzer with Self-Evaluation

To solve this puzzle, we must apply logical reasoning to the given scenario. Let’s break down the elements:

  1. Humans always tell the truth.
  2. Vampires always lie.
  3. Every resident of Șirnea, when asked how many vampires are living there, responds with “At least one of us is a human.”

Now, let’s logically analyze the statement given by the residents:

(A) If there were no vampires in Șirnea (i.e., all residents were humans), the statement “At least one of us is a human” would be true. However, since we know there is at least one vampire (the one seen), this scenario is not possible.

(B) If there was one human and the rest were vampires, the statement “At least one of us is a human” would be true, which a vampire cannot say. Therefore, there can’t be just one human.

(C) If all the residents were vampires, none of them could truthfully say “At least one of us is a human,” since that would be a true statement and vampires can only lie.

Therefore, the only logical conclusion is that all 100 residents of Șirnea have been turned into vampires. Each vampire, when saying “At least one of us is a human,” is lying, which aligns with the known behavior of vampires.

Logical Self-Evaluation:

  1. Premises Implicit in User’s Question:
    • Humans always tell the truth.
    • Vampires always lie.
    • All residents of Șirnea gave the same response.
  2. Premises Implicit in My Provided Answer:
    • The statement “At least one of us is a human” cannot be truthfully said by a vampire.
    • The presence of at least one vampire in the village is a given.
  3. Analysis of Logical Implications:
    • If there is at least one human, the statement made by the residents would be true, which a vampire could not say.
    • If everyone is a vampire, then the statement is a lie, which aligns with vampire behavior.
  4. Assessment of Combined Logical Extrapolations:
    • The only scenario in which the statement made by all residents aligns with the known behaviors of humans and vampires is if all residents are vampires.

Thus, the conclusion that all 100 residents are vampires is logically coherent given the premises and the established behaviors of humans and vampires.

Using a self-checking GPT, ChatGPT comes to the correct conclusion immediately.

Note: Presumably, since the GPT knew in advance that it was going to have prove the logical underpinnings of its own answer, that impacted the “thinking pattern” of the earlier part of the response, so that a response was provided that would enable the GPT to be able to complete its own answer coherently.

Conclusion

Creating a reality that assumes the logical underpinnings of both the user’s question and also the AI’s answer, allows the AI to check if its answer results in an absurdity, which would disprove either the answer or the question. This allows the AI to self-check its output without having to understand the “thinking process” that it used in reaching its own answer.

This may or may not be the approach that OpenAI are looking for in the above job ad, but it does lift the quality of ChatGPT’s output.

Donald Trump versus ChatGPT

Donald Trump versus ChatGPT

Whenever a person makes a statement, we can always ask, “What did that person appear to say, and what did that person actually say?” Even when a person seems to be being very explicit and straightforward, it is not always obvious that what they “actually said” means the same as the words that came out of their mouth. This pseudo-reality is particularly important in political speeches, where every word carries weight and implications far beyond its surface meaning.

Typically, we rely on experts and pundits to dissect and interpret these nuanced communications. However, even the most professional assessment is inevitably tinged with the personal biases and interpretations of the individual making it; an alternative is to ask ChatGPT for its unbiased analysis.

This post shows ChatGPT taking a psychoanalytical deep dive into Donald Trump’s inaugural speech, using Transactional Analysis as the analytical medium. (For an introduction to the principles of Transactional Analysis see A short introduction to Transactional Analysis and Meaningful opinions and Transactional Analysis).

Trump’s Inaugural Speech

Donald Trump’s inaugural speech was a masterpiece of oratory in which he made a clear declaration of his administration’s guiding principles. This forthright speech encapsulated the ethos of ‘America First’, which combines a profound emphasis on the nation’s internal social and economic vitality, and a transactional approach to international relations. In his speech, Trump appears to communicate directly and explicitly, a rarity in the weird and wonderful world of politics.

Trump’s entire inaugural speech can be rephrased as, “Americans are being taken for a ride, and I’m going to set things right again.” By making this simple and powerful “statement of fact”, he carved out an image of no-nonsense talking and pragmatic accomplishment.

Crafting Indispensability

The question remains, however, did Trump present a perfectly rational point-of-view, standing on its own merits, or did he present a point-of-view that was only compelling when contextualised within his own persona and leadership style?

This is an extremely important question, because if Trump presented his point-of-view as factual, whereas in reality that point-of-view could only make sense when taking Trump into account, then by getting the audience to accept his speech as pure fact, he effectively “hard-wired himself into the system”; the system could henceforth no longer exist without him.

Let’s see what ChatGPT makes of this question.

Psychoanalytical Assessment of Trump’s Inaugural Speech by ChatGPT

The full text of Donald Trump’s inaugural speech is available here: The Inaugural Address – The White House (archives.gov). ChatGPT’s psychoanalysis of this speech (from a Transactional Analysis perspective) is available here.

The following YouTube video shows an animation of ChatGPT’s TA psychoanalysis:

Facts and Opinion

Typically in Transactional Analysis, the Adult (rational) ego state is the purveyor of facts, the Parent (authority figure) ego state is the purveyor of opinion.

Bearing this in mind, we can identify two types of communication in Trump’s inaugural speech:

  • Adult to Adult: In some sentences, Trump is in the Adult ego state, and addresses the audience’s Adult ego state (i.e. Trump addresses the audience from a rational perspective).
  • Parent to Child: In other sentences, Trump is in the Parent ego state (representing an authority figure), and addresses the audience’s Child ego state (i.e. the propensity of the audience to “need” a parental, authority figure.)

If we look at a table of which audience ego states Trump was in during the course of his inaugural speech, we see a very skillful glissando from the Adult (factual) ego state, to the Parent (authority figure) ego state.

Green: Trump’s Adult addressing the audience’s Adult ego state

Orange: Trump addressing the audience’s Adult + Child ego states

Red: Trump addressing the audience’s Child ego state

Sentence Ego State Spoken From Ego State Addressed
Chief Justice Roberts, President Carter, President Clinton, President Bush, President Obama, fellow Americans, and people of the world, thank you. Adult Adult
We the citizens of America are now joined in a great national effort to rebuild our country and restore its promise for all of our people. Adult Adult
Together we will determine the course of America, and the world, for many, many years to come. Adult Adult
We will face challenges. Adult Adult
We will confront hardships, but we will get the job done. Adult Adult
Every four years, we gather on these steps to carry out the orderly and peaceful transfer of power, and we are grateful to President Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama for their gracious aid throughout this transition. Adult Adult
They have been magnificent. Thank you. Adult Adult
Today’s ceremony, however, has very special meaning, because today we are not merely transferring power from one administration to another, or from one party to another, but we are transferring power from Washington, D.C., and giving it back to you, the people. Adult Adult
What truly matters is not which party controls our government, but whether our government is controlled by the people. Adult Adult
At the center of this movement is a crucial conviction, that a nation exists to serve its citizens. Adult Adult
Americans want great schools for their children, safe neighborhoods for their families, and good jobs for themselves. Adult Adult
These are just and reasonable demands of righteous people and a righteous public. Adult Adult
The oath of office I take today is an oath of allegiance to all Americans. Adult Adult
We assembled here today are issuing a new decree to be heard in every city, in every foreign capital, and in every hall of power. Adult Adult
Every decision on trade, on taxes, on immigration, on foreign affairs will be made to benefit American workers and American families. Adult Adult
Protection will lead to great prosperity and strength. Adult Adult
We will build new roads and highways and bridges and airports and tunnels, and railways, all across our wonderful nation. Adult Adult
We will follow two simple rules: buy American and hire American. Adult Adult
We will seek friendship and goodwill with the nations of the world, but we do so with the understanding that it is the right of all nations to put their own interests first. Adult Adult
We do not seek to impose our way of life on anyone, but rather to let it shine as an example. Adult Adult
We will reinforce old alliances and form new ones, and unite the civilized world against radical Islamic terrorism, which we will eradicate completely from the face of the Earth. Adult Adult
We must speak our minds openly, debate our disagreements, but always pursue solidarity. Adult Adult
In America, we understand that a nation is only living as long as it is striving. Adult Adult
The time for empty talk is over. Now arrives the hour of action. Adult Adult
We stand at the birth of a new millennium, ready to unlock the mysteries of space, to free the Earth from the miseries of disease, and to harness the industries and technologies of tomorrow. Adult Adult
For too long, a small group in our nation’s capital has reaped the rewards of government, while the people have borne the cost. Adult / Critical Parent Adult / Child
Washington flourished, but the people did not share in its wealth. Adult / Critical Parent Adult / Child
Politicians prospered, but the jobs left and the factories closed. Critical Parent Child
The establishment protected itself, but not the citizens of our country. Critical Parent Child
Their victories have not been your victories. Critical Parent Child
Their triumphs have not been your triumphs, and while they celebrated in our nation’s capital, there was little to celebrate for struggling families all across our land. Critical Parent Child
That all changes, starting right here and right now, because this moment is your moment — it belongs to you. Nurturing Parent / Adult Child
It belongs to everyone gathered here today, and everyone watching, all across America. Adult / Nurturing Parent Child
This is your day. Adult / Nurturing Parent Child
This is your celebration, and this, the United States of America, is your country. Adult / Nurturing Parent Child
January 20th, 2017 will be remembered as the day the people became the rulers of this nation again. Adult / Nurturing Parent Child
The forgotten men and women of our country will be forgotten no longer. Nurturing Parent Child
Everyone is listening to you now. Nurturing Parent Child
You came by the tens of millions to become part of a historic movement, the likes of which the world has never seen before. Nurturing Parent Child
But for too many of our citizens, a different reality exists. Adult / Critical Parent Adult / Child
Mothers and children trapped in poverty in our inner cities, rusted-out factories scattered like tombstones across the landscape of our nation. Critical Parent Child
An education system flush with cash, but which leaves our young and beautiful students deprived of all knowledge. Critical Parent Child
And the crime, and the gangs, and the drugs that have stolen too many lives and robbed our country of so much unrealized potential. Critical Parent Child
This American carnage stops right here and stops right now. Adult / Nurturing Parent Child
We are one nation and their pain is our pain. Nurturing Parent Child
Their dreams are our dreams and their success will be our success. Nurturing Parent Child
We share one heart, one home, and one glorious destiny. Nurturing Parent Child
For many decades, we’ve enriched foreign industry at the expense of American industry. Critical Parent Child
Subsidized the armies of other countries, while allowing for the very sad depletion of our military. Critical Parent Child
We’ve defended other nation’s borders while refusing to defend our own. Critical Parent Child
And spent trillions and trillions of dollars overseas, while America’s infrastructure has fallen into disrepair and decay. Critical Parent Child
We’ve made other countries rich while the wealth, strength, and confidence of our country has dissipated over the horizon. Critical Parent Child
One by one, the factories shuttered and left our shores, with not even a thought about the millions and millions of American workers that were left behind. Critical Parent Child
The wealth of our middle class has been ripped from their homes and then redistributed all across the world. Critical Parent Child
But that is the past, and now we are looking only to the future. Adult / Nurturing Parent Child
From this day forward, a new vision will govern our land, from this day forward, it’s going to be only America first. America first. Adult Adult / Child
We must protect our borders from the ravages of other countries making our products, stealing our companies, and destroying our jobs. Critical Parent Child
I will fight for you with every breath in my body, and I will never, ever let you down. Nurturing Parent Child
America will start winning again, winning like never before. Adult / Nurturing Parent Child
We will bring back our jobs. We will bring back our borders. We will bring back our wealth, and we will bring back our dreams. Adult / Nurturing Parent Child
We will get our people off of welfare and back to work, rebuilding our country with American hands and American labor. Adult Adult / Child
We will shine for everyone to follow. Adult / Nurturing Parent Child
At the bedrock of our politics will be a total allegiance to the United States of America, and through our loyalty to our country, we will rediscover our loyalty to each other. Adult / Nurturing Parent Child
When you open your heart to patriotism, there is no room for prejudice. Nurturing Parent Child
The Bible tells us, how good and pleasant it is when God’s people live together in unity. Nurturing Parent Child
When America is united, America is totally unstoppable. Adult / Nurturing Parent Child
There should be no fear. We are protected, and we will always be protected. Nurturing Parent Child
We will be protected by the great men and women of our military and law enforcement. And most importantly, we will be protected by God. Nurturing Parent Child
Finally, we must think big and dream even bigger. Adult / Nurturing Parent Child
We will no longer accept politicians who are all talk and no action, constantly complaining but never doing anything about it. Critical Parent Child
Do not allow anyone to tell you that it cannot be done. No challenge can match the heart and fight and spirit of America. Nurturing Parent Child
We will not fail. Our country will thrive and prosper again. Adult / Nurturing Parent Child
A new national pride will stir our souls, lift our sights, and heal our divisions. Nurturing Parent Child
It’s time to remember that old wisdom our soldiers will never forget, that whether we are black or brown or white, we all bleed the same red blood of patriots. Nurturing Parent Child
We all enjoy the same glorious freedoms, and we all salute the same, great American flag. Nurturing Parent Child
And whether a child is born in the urban sprawl of Detroit or the windswept plains of Nebraska, they look up at the same night sky, they fill their heart with the same dreams and they are infused with the breath of life by the same almighty creator. Nurturing Parent Child
So to all Americans, in every city near and far, small and large, from mountain to mountain, from ocean to ocean, hear these words. Adult / Nurturing Parent Child
You will never be ignored again. Nurturing Parent Child
Your voice, your hopes, and your dreams will define our American destiny. Nurturing Parent Child
And your courage and goodness and love, will forever guide us along the way. Nurturing Parent Child
Together, we will make America strong again. Adult / Nurturing Parent Child
We will make America wealthy again. Adult / Nurturing Parent Child
We will make America proud again. Nurturing Parent Child
We will make America safe again. Adult / Nurturing Parent Child

Interpreting the Shift in Communication

ChatGPT’s TA analysis reveals a sophisticated use of ego states. The early parts of the speech, rooted in Adult-Adult interaction, establish a foundation of trust and credibility. Trump presents himself as a rational, level-headed leader who acknowledges the realities facing the nation. This is a strategic move that lays the groundwork for the more emotive and persuasive elements that follow.

As the speech moves into the Parent-Child dynamic, Trump taps into deeper, more emotional currents. His rhetoric becomes more about instilling a sense of protection, guidance, and even admonishment. This is evident in statements where he criticizes the current state of affairs and promises change. In doing so, Trump positions himself as a guardian figure, promising to rectify the perceived wrongs and lead the nation towards a better future.

The psychological impact of this shift cannot be understated. In the Parent-Child dynamic, the audience is not just being informed; they are being influenced at a more subconscious level. They are led to feel cared for, understood, and part of a larger movement, whose leader is Donald Trump. By alternating between presenting facts and appealing to emotion, Trump blends rational arguments with emotive rhetoric, making himself guardian of the nation and the sole possible solution to the problems that have been presented.

In other words, Trump positions himself as an indispensable part of the systemic solution to the problems he outlines. By blending factual Adult communication with the protective and directive Parent stance, Trump ensures that his audience perceives not just the message, but Trump himself, as a necessary component of any solution. In doing so, he creates a scenario where the system, as proposed in his speech, seems unable to function without his leadership and direction.

Parent Contamination of the Adult

In Transactional Analysis, the concept of “Parent contamination of the Adult” refers to a situation where the Adult ego state – typically rational, factual, and objective – is influenced or ‘contaminated’ by the Parent ego state, which is more authoritative, protective, and opinionated. In this situation, the Adult “believes” that the Parent constitutes a rational component of reality, instead of just providing a guiding and authoritarian perspective.

In the context of Trump’s inaugural speech, this contamination of the Adult with the Parent is evident in how he blends factual communication (Adult state) with a directive, protective approach (Parent state). By doing this, Trump positions himself, the guiding parental figure, as an essential part of the solution to the issues he addresses. This technique ensures that the audience perceives not just the facts and plans he presents, but also Trump’s authority itself, as an indispensable factor for implementing the required solutions.

Conclusion

The analysis of Donald Trump’s inaugural speech through the lens of Transactional Analysis by ChatGPT provides a profound insight into the power of political narratives. The strategic interplay between the Adult and Parent ego states in Trump’s speech is not merely a communication technique; it is a tool for crafting a narrative in which he becomes an indispensable element of the national agenda.

This analysis has significant implications for understanding political discourse. It highlights how leaders can use language and communication styles to position themselves as central to the resolution of issues, thereby cementing their authority and influence. It also underscores the need for a critical analysis of political speeches to discern the underlying strategies that shape public perception and opinion.

ChatGPT’s role in this analysis exemplifies the potential of AI in deconstructing and understanding complex political rhetoric. By providing an unbiased, psychoanalytical perspective, AI tools like ChatGPT can help in discerning the subtleties of political communication, offering insights that might be overlooked in traditional analyses.

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