The Law of Unintended Consequences and The LOTR

July 19, 2023November 29, 2023 Edward Chalk

The Law of Unintended Consequences and The LOTR

In everyday life, we are used to the idea of cause and effect. That means that when we try to do something, we expect an outcome similar to the effort we put in. However, sometimes our actions backfire and result in the exact opposite of what we intended.

This effect is called the Law of Unintended Consequences, which Wikipedia defines as follows:

In the social sciences, unintended consequences are outcomes of a purposeful action that are not intended or foreseen. Unintended consequences can be grouped into three types:

Unexpected benefit: A positive unexpected benefit (also referred to as luck, serendipity or a windfall).

Unexpected drawback: An unexpected detriment occurring in addition to the desired effect.

Perverse result: A perverse effect contrary to what was originally intended.

When can we expect an opposite outcome from our actions, and why does this happen?

Areas of Human Endeavour

Generally speaking, we can divide all human experiences into three areas:

Self: Internal (intrapersonal) experiences, for example: eating good food, intellectual stimulation and exercise.
Other: Interpersonal experiences that involve interaction with others, for example: making friends, being part of a community and participating in group activities.
Ideology: Idealogical experiences associated with a belief system, for example: environmentalism, philanthropy and religion.

These areas can overlap, for example:

Self + Other: Sharing a meal with others combines the personal experience of eating good food with the shared experience of socialising.
Self + Ideology: Studying a specific scientific field might inspire you to donate to a charity focused on that research area.
Other + Ideology: Engaging in a group environmental activity reinforces the benefit to the environment through collective action.

The more areas of experience involved in an activity, the higher the level of personal engagement. Full personal involvement is achieved when all three areas of experience come into play.

Society and Self

In addition to the Self, Other and Ideology experiences of the individual, societies also have a powerful and pervasive idea of how the Self, the Other and Ideology should be experienced.

Self: Societies shape the Self by encouraging certain traits, values, and behaviors.
Other: Societies promote certain types of relationships and interactions, so shaping the Other.
Ideology: Each society espouses specific belief systems or Ideologies that align with its core values and principles.

Together, these elements combine to create a unique societal system. The type of Self that a society nurtures, the nature of relationships (Other) it promotes, and the Ideology it espouses, all contribute to the shape and function of the societal system.

Societal Perpetuation

In order to guarantee the societal stability, society institutionalises these concepts of Self, Other and Ideology:

Legal Frameworks: Societies have laws that explicitly dictate acceptable behavior and ideologies. Laws can reject or penalize influences that contradict these legal norms. For example, societies that value individual freedom and self-expression (Self) might have laws that protect freedom of speech, thereby limiting the influence of ideologies that advocate for censorship.
Customs and Traditions: Customs and traditions (“the way we do things”) can promote certain behaviors and beliefs while discouraging others. These often play out in common practices that encapsulate the society’s preferred Self, Other, and Ideology, and discourage alternatives.
Cultural and Social Norms: Cultural and social norms are informal understandings that govern individuals’ behavior in society. They act as a primary filter, influencing what types of behaviors, relationships, and ideologies are considered acceptable. When an external influence is at odds with these norms, it often faces resistance or rejection from the society.

In this way, society creates a protective buffer around itself to guard against influences that seek to change the way of life exemplified by the society.

Inverse Perception of External Influences

When one society forcibly exerts influence on another in an attempt to change or subordinate the second society, the recipient society always perceives this influence from a different perspective (relative to the Self, Other and Ideology categorisation) than the source society.

For example, if Society A attempts to forcibly influence Society B from an ideological perspective, then this will be viewed as an attack on the Self and Society of Society B.

We can identify this effect in the discrete areas of Self, Other, and Ideology.

Forcible attempts to impose a new type of Self: According to the second society, the Self of the first society is oppressive and grasping. Such a Self cannot be a true, natural form of Self and is rather an artificial form generated by an incorrect Ideology and ways of living (Other). Therefore, forcible attempts to impose a new type of Self are construed as attacks on ideology and societal structure.
Forcible attempts to impose a new type of Other: According to the second society, the societal interactions in the first society are unhealthy and unnatural, and so must be the product of incorrect Ideology and personal corruption (Self).
Forcible attempts to impose a new type of Ideology: According to the second society, the Ideology of the first society is invalid, therefore this ideology cannot truly appear as ideological to the second society and is instead perceived as a projection of a corrupt Self and of dysfunctional societal interactions (Other).

Since the second society always perceives the source of the influence from the first society as coming from a different area than it emanates from in the source society, the element of the second society that responds to that stimulus is inevitably different to the source element. Therefore, the effect it has on the target society is always in a different area (of Self, Other and Ideology) than in the source.

This means to say, due to the inversion in perception that occurs when force is traded between different societies, the area of Self, Other, or Ideology impacted in Society B is always different from the area of influence intended by Society A.

We can see this effect in The Lord of the Rings.

Sauron and the Fellowship of the Ring

In The Lord of the Rings, Sauron the Dark Lord wants to take over the Free World by using his army of orcs and disaffected men. The Fellowship of the Ring aim to destroy the One Ring of Power, which will destroy Sauron. On the way to destroying the One Ring, the members of the fellowship are tried to their utmost, both physically and emotionally, and in the end, they succeed in their mission.

In this way, the pressure exerted by Sauron on the Fellowship due to his mission to conquer all of Middle Earth (Ideology), has a unifying effect on the Fellowship (Other) and results in their personal growth (Self). Faced with the threat of Mordor’s domination, the Fellowship members develop deeper bonds of mutual reliance, fostering a sense of unity in the face of their common enemy.

Here we see that the forceful application of Sauron’s Ideology (to rule the world) has a positive impact on the Fellowship’s Other and Self.

Sauron, the Dark Lord, encountered the Law of Unintended Consequences when by attempting to conquer the world, he forged the Fellowship of the Ring, a group of hardy and stalwart people. Since the Fellowship of the Ring lived in a different, converse society to Sauron, Sauron’s attempt to gain dominion over them backfired and resulted in his final downfall.

Systemic Errors within the same Society

There are other situations in the Lord of the Rings however, where the Rule of Unintended Consequences seems to apply within the same social system.

Boromir’s Attempt to Use the Ring: Boromir, a member of the Fellowship, moved by his desire to protect his people in Gondor (Self), attempts to take the One Ring from Frodo to use it against Sauron.
However, his actions are perceived by the Fellowship (Other) as a breach of the group’s Ideology, which is to destroy the One Ring. His personal desire to help his own people (Self) leads to the temporary dissolution of the Fellowship (Other), due to his failure to adhere to the group’s Ideology, an outcome opposite to his intention.
Denethor’s Stewardship: Denethor, the Steward of Gondor, desires to maintain the strength and unity of his realm (Other). Yet his actions, driven by despair and a misguided use of the palantír (seeing stone), lead him into madness (Self) when Sauron’s Ideology percolates into his mind.
This culminates in his tragic suicide; he fails in his role as Steward and contributes to the near downfall of Gondor, contrary to his original goal.

These events do not seem to fit into the idea that inversion of societal areas occur specifically when a social boundary has been crossed.

Further analysis shows, however, that in the above scenarios, a system boundary was crossed unwittingly. In other words, a systemic error was made.

Boromir’s Attempt to Use the Ring (Self to Ideology): Boromir is by definition unable to use the One Ring, since it represents the power and the system of Sauron.
Denethor’s Stewardship (Other to Self): Denethor thought he could use the power of the palantír (seeing stone) to strengthen himself, however, Sauron wrested control of Denethor’s mind through his use of the palantír. Thereby, Denethor was drawn into Sauron’s social system and became “mad” relative to his own.

This illustrates that not only does the Law of Unintended Consequences apply when social-system boundaries are crossed explicitly, but even where constructs of one society occur within another society, then attempting to use those constructs invokes interaction with the other society which results in perverse and unintended consequences.

Summary

We can deduce from the above that the manifestation of the Law of Unintended Consequences signifies a crossing of societal boundaries; this crossing of boundaries may either be deliberate, as in the case of Sauron’s pursuit of dominion, or it may be inadvertent, as in the case of Boromir trying to gain control of the One Ring.

This deduction can be stated as follows.

If the result of a social action is in line with the nature of the action, then both the action and the effect occurred within the same societal context. However, if the result is contrary to the nature of the action, then a societal boundary was crossed between the action and the effect.

Practically speaking this means that if we do encounter the Law of Unintended Consequences, and the outcome of our actions is the opposite of intended, this is because either we have unwittingly crossed a societal boundary, or because we are trying to apply one society’s constructs within another.

We can respond to our surprise in these situations by reassessing the local societal structures and adjusting our responses accordingly.

Showing how an AI Reached a Decision

June 20, 2023June 20, 2023 Edward Chalk

Showing how an AI Reached a Decision

The inner workings of complex AIs cannot necessarily be understood in logical terms, since they are orchestrated by intricate algorithms and mathematical models that work together to process, analyze, and generate information. Therefore, deciding if an AI conclusion is right or wrong can be difficult, since we can’t understand how the AI reached its conclusion in the first place.

To address this challenge, it is useful to break down problems into sub-problems that can be fed into the AI, and then combine the AI output for each sub-problem, to reach a final conclusion. Using this technique can serve in lieu of exposing the “inner workings of the AI’s mind”, and allows us to agree with, disagree with or discuss the AI’s conclusion.

Perspectives

Most problems can be considered from different perspectives.

Going on a fantastic holiday could be fun, but would probably also be expensive.
Doing a degree could be hard work, but may be useful in the long term.
Getting an AI to do your homework may be easy, but it probably won’t teach you very much.

Complex problems can be considered from numerous perspectives, and the optimal solution can only be found by creating a balance of the optimal solutions dictated by each perspective.

Therefore, to find the answer to a complex problem we need to:

Identify each perspective from which the problem can be considered.
Find the optimal solution from each perspective.
Combine the individual optimal solutions to reach a balanced, optimal conclusion.

To identify all the perspectives from which a problem can be considered, we must identify all the primary constructs (elemental logical building blocks) represented in the initial problem statement.

Identifying Primary Logical Constructs using ChatGPT

We can ask ChatGPT to identify the primary logical constructs in a sample question for the New York Bar Exam, as follows:

Identify the primary constructs in the following question:

"One year ago, Joan executed a will in which she left her entire estate to her only daughter. At that time, Joan’s daughter, Joan’s granddaughter (the only child of Joan’s daughter), Joan’s only son, and Joan’s three grandsons (children of her son) were living. Joan’s son and her three grandsons had extensive criminal records for theft and burglary.

When she went to her lawyer to draft her will, she told her lawyer that she wanted to leave all her property to her daughter and nothing to her male line. She explained, “Leaving the males in my family anything valuable would be a complete waste on burglars and thieves.

For the last five years, Joan had regularly had lunch with several friends. All of them were much wealthier than Joan. At these lunches, she often told her friends that she was a “multimillionaire” and owned both a “luxurious” home and a “very expensive” car. They had no reason to doubt Joan’s claims because she had never invited them to her home and she took cabs to their lunches. In fact, Joan was never a millionaire, and she never owned either a luxurious home or an expensive automobile. She lived in a modest apartment, and her primary source of income was her Social Security benefits. She monitored her bank account regularly and reconciled her bank statement every month.

One month ago, Joan died, survived by her daughter, her granddaughter, her son, and her three grandsons. At her death, Joan owned no significant assets other than her bank account containing $100,000.

Under the insane-delusion rule, is Joan’s will invalid? Explain.
Do these facts establish that Joan’s will is invalid because she lacked the general mental capacity to execute a will? Explain.
Which, if any, of Joan’s surviving relatives has standing to contest Joan’s will? Explain.

ChatGPT responds as follows:

The primary constructs in the question are:

Joan’s Family: This includes her only daughter, granddaughter (the daughter’s child), only son, and three grandsons (the son’s children). Their relationships to Joan and their personal histories are important to the context.
Joan’s Mental Health and Medication: Joan’s health and the medication she’s taking are significant. The effects of the medication, leading to hallucinations and a specific delusion about the male members of her family, are crucial to her decision to exclude them from her will.
Joan’s Social Interactions and Wealth Perception: Joan’s interactions with her wealthy friends, and her representations about her own wealth, suggest a disconnect between her portrayed and actual financial status.
Joan’s Will: Joan’s will, in which she left everything to her daughter and nothing to her male descendants, is the central legal document under scrutiny.
Joan’s Death and Estate: Joan’s death and the value of her estate are relevant to the questions about the validity of her will and who can contest it.
Legal Concepts: The “insane-delusion rule”, the “general mental capacity to execute a will”, and the “standing to contest a will” are the key legal concepts that need to be applied to the facts of the situation. These concepts are essential for understanding and answering the questions.

Now let’s try to get ChatGPT to solve the problem, from the perspective of each primary concept.

A legal problem is stated as follows: "One year ago, Joan executed a will in which she left her entire estate to her only daughter... (rest of the text as provided above)"

Give a full consideration of the problem from the exclusive perspective of each of the following primary constructs.

Joan's Family, Joan's Mental Health and Medication, Joan's Social Interactions and Wealth Perception, Joan's Will, Joan's Death and Estate, Legal Concepts

ChatGPT needed a bit more prodding, after an initial false start.

For each primary construct, construe what the law should be from the perspective of that primary construct, considering all other considerations as secondary.

ChatGPT’s initial response:

Joan’s Family: From the perspective of Joan’s family, the law should ensure a fair distribution of Joan’s estate. They may argue for an equitable distribution, where all immediate family members get a share of the estate, regardless of Joan’s personal feelings or past interactions with them. The family, especially the son and grandsons, could argue against the validity of the will based on Joan’s mental health issues.
Joan’s Mental Health and Medication: If we consider Joan’s mental health and medication as the primary construct, the law should prioritize the testamentary capacity at the time of the will’s creation. Joan was experiencing hallucinations, which might affect her judgment and could lead to the conclusion that the will was written under an “insane delusion.” From this perspective, the law should focus on whether Joan had the mental capacity to understand her actions when she drafted the will.
Joan’s Social Interactions and Wealth Perception: Considering Joan’s social interactions and perceived wealth as the primary construct, the law might be less concerned with the actual distribution of her assets, focusing instead on the credibility of her testamentary intentions. If Joan’s friends contest the will based on their understanding of Joan’s wealth, the law should consider the truth of Joan’s actual financial situation, not her perceived wealth.
Joan’s Will: From the perspective of the will, the primary legal concern should be ensuring that it accurately represents Joan’s wishes and that she was of sound mind when it was drafted. The law should protect the rights of the testator to dispose of their property as they wish, even if it appears unfair to some family members.
Joan’s Death and Estate: Considering Joan’s death and the nature of her estate, the law should primarily ensure the proper execution of her will and the fair distribution of her assets. If the estate is insufficient to meet the claims of all heirs, the law may need to establish a hierarchy of claimants.
Legal Concepts: From a purely legal perspective, the law should ensure that Joan’s will is valid and enforceable. The law should establish that Joan had the necessary mental capacity when the will was executed, that the will was not created under duress or undue influence, and that it clearly represents Joan’s wishes. If these conditions are not met, the law may deem the will invalid, potentially leading to an intestate distribution of Joan’s estate.

I asked ChatGPT to flesh this out:

Now extrapolate each of those paragraphs into a full legal decision reached from the perspective of that primary point.

ChatGPT responded:

Joan’s Family: From the family’s perspective, the court ruling would ideally consider the principle of fairness and equity in property distribution. Joan’s disconnection with her family and her sentiments towards her son and grandsons should not justify an absolute exclusion from the estate. Despite Joan’s will, the court, in this perspective, could decide that Joan’s son and grandsons have a rightful claim to a portion of the estate, given their direct familial relation, despite their criminal past. The ruling might aim to promote family harmony and prevent disinheritance based solely on personal feelings, providing a portion of the inheritance to all family members.
Joan’s Mental Health and Medication: From this standpoint, a court would assess Joan’s mental health at the time she wrote her will. Medical records indicating that her medication caused hallucinations could lead the court to deem that Joan lacked testamentary capacity, rendering her will invalid. The court might rule that her belief in her male lineage being “cursed” was a product of her medically-induced hallucinations, impacting her capacity to make an informed, rational decision. Thus, the court could distribute the estate according to laws of intestacy, splitting the assets between her surviving children, the daughter and the son.
Joan’s Social Interactions and Wealth Perception: From the viewpoint of Joan’s social interactions and wealth perception, a legal decision might focus more on Joan’s personal autonomy and right to privacy. Joan’s misrepresentation of her wealth to her friends does not legally implicate her testamentary decisions. A court, viewing from this angle, could uphold the validity of Joan’s will since her actual financial situation and her private decision not to disclose it to her friends is within her rights, not impacting her ability to distribute her assets.
Joan’s Will: From the standpoint of Joan’s will, the court would focus on the validity of the document and Joan’s testamentary freedom. The law supports an individual’s right to distribute their assets as they see fit, as long as they possess the mental capacity to do so. The court, in this perspective, might uphold the will, concluding that Joan’s negative sentiments toward her son and grandsons, although influenced by hallucinations, do not undermine her right to distribute her assets as she wished.
Joan’s Death and Estate: Looking at Joan’s death and her estate, the court’s decision might strive for the effective administration and distribution of Joan’s limited assets. Given Joan’s clear intention to leave her entire estate to her daughter in her will, and the relatively modest sum involved, the court might determine that the most effective and straightforward course of action is to uphold the will, ensuring a smooth transfer of Joan’s estate to her daughter.
Legal Concepts: From a purely legal viewpoint, the court would seek to establish whether the will was executed under an insane delusion or if Joan lacked testamentary capacity. Should the court decide that Joan’s belief about her male lineage was an insane delusion, the will might be declared invalid. However, if the court determines Joan was of sound mind when she made the will, despite her hallucinations, it could uphold the will, citing Joan’s right to disinherit certain family members if she chooses to. The verdict would largely depend on the court’s interpretation of “insane delusion” and the extent to which it influenced Joan’s testamentary decisions.

Summary Legal Decision

ChatGPT’s responses above can be summarised as follows.

Primary Construct	Summary Discussion	Outcome
Joan’s Family	The ruling might aim to provide a portion of the inheritance to all family members.	Will is invalid.
Joan’s Mental Health and Medication	The court might rule that her belief in her male lineage being cursed was a product of her medically-induced hallucinations.	Will is invalid.
Joan’s Social Interactions and Wealth Perception	Joan’s misrepresentation of her wealth to her friends does not legally implicate her testamentary decisions.	Will is valid.
Joan’s Will	The law supports an individual’s right to distribute their assets as they see fit, as long as they possess the mental capacity to do so.	Will is valid.
Joan’s Death and Estate	Given Joan’s clear intention to leave her entire estate to her daughter in her will, and the relatively modest sum involved, the court might determine that the most effective and straightforward course of action is to uphold the will.	Will is valid.
Legal Concepts	If the court determines Joan was of sound mind when she made the will, despite her hallucinations, it could uphold the will.	Will is likely valid.

The will is valid from the majority of perspectives from which the legal question can be considered, therefore regardless of its exact deliberations, a court is more likely to rule in favour of upholding the will than it is to rule in favour of annulling it.

Conclusion

To consider if we agree or disagree with an AI conclusion, we need to know how the AI reached the conclusion in the first place.

If the AI is just asked the entire problem, the way it worked out the solution to the problem is not likely to be very transparent. To reveal the AI’s “thinking”, it can be useful to ask the AI to discretely solve the problem from all possible perspectives (represented by the primary logical constructs in the problem statement), and then to recombine all the AI’s answers to reach a final conclusion.

This technique can provide an understanding of why the AI reached a particular decision, and allows us to drill down into specific areas of the problem, if needed.

Note: See these previous posts (Qualitative Systems Analysis using ChatGPT, Personality Specialisation in Problem Solving using ChatGPT) for an alternative problem decomposition technique you can use with an AI chatbot such as ChatGPT.

Personality Specialisation in Problem Solving using ChatGPT

June 16, 2023November 29, 2023 Edward Chalk

Personality Specialisation in Problem Solving

Different people are good at doing different things. Lumberjacks are good at cutting down trees, and nurses are good at taking care of patients. Conversely, lumberjacks are not good at taking care of patients and nurses are not good at cutting down trees.

Such job specialisation according to a person’s predispositions, also occurs in a white collar work environment, just in a slightly more subtle way. Generally speaking, we can identify three primary character types that are suited to different areas of information work.

Analytical predisposition: People who are good at analysing things and drilling down into fine detail. For instance, anyone whose job title includes the word “analyst”.
Controlling predisposition: People who are good at controlling situations and don’t like it when processes run out of control. For instance, project managers.
Energetic predisposition: People who are good at propelling situations along and getting other people motivated and interested in what they are meant to be doing. For instance, (hopefully) the CEO.

If you read this previous article, you might be thinking that the three character descriptions above (analytical, controlling and energetic) sound suspiciously similar to the three general areas that any system can be divided into (logic, control, energy).

It would seem that this correlation is relatively accurate, at least, and it is specialisation in the various areas of the human psyche (of logic, control and energy) that gives rise to the above mentioned character types (analytical, controlling and energetic).

The Need for Accuracy

Accuracy is the most sought-after commodity in a white collar environment. For example, the most likely outcome of a software development project with ill defined requirements is promotion for the non-participants.

Doing things approximately right in a high-pressure environment just doesn’t work, for the same reason that if the clearance between a piston and a cylinder in a petrol engine is greater than ±0.0005 inches, then the engine will either seize up or run inefficiently. Since modern information systems are comprised a large number of moving parts, each of which needs an accurate input to generate an accurate output, therefore if any of the system elements operates out of its allowed variance, the impact on the system as a whole can be dramatic and, in some cases, catastrophic.

In considering how to get an accurate result, the first observation is that accurate system design and implementation can only possibly be the result of accurate thinking.

So the primary question is not necessarily, “In what way must the system be accurate?” but rather, “How do you get accurate thinking in the first place?”

Extreme Positions and Accuracy

Extreme positions in the information work environment may be very annoying, but they do tend to generate accuracy. Meticulous data management, strict adherence to work processes, and rigorous quality checks, always produce a better result than turning-a-blind-eye to “small” issues in data quality control, relaxed work process compliance, and a happy-go-lucky attitude towards quality assurance.

Additionally, extreme work-related positions, are often associated with extreme character types.

That is why:

An extremely analytical person is far more likely to drill down to the level of detailed required to make sure nothing is just “approximately right”, that someone who does not specialise in being analytical.
Somebody who absolutely has to make sure that every single detail is in the right place and under control, is likely to make a brilliant project manager.
Someone who has a fiery desire to make sure a venture is successful, is far more likely to sniff out potential pitfalls than someone who is disinterested and uninvolved.

In this way, professionals who set a high bar and produce clean, accurate results, are very often people whose character dovetails with the analytical, controlling or energising aspect of the work they are doing.

AI Chatbots and Personality Specialisation

When asking ChatGPT or Bard to respond to a question, it is possible to specify the “personality type” of the AI “respondent”.

So if I ask ChatGPT, “As Henry the Eighth, what is your opinion of the O2 building?”

I get the following answer:

Ah, the O2 Building, a marvel indeed! As a monarch of the 16th century, such a structure is beyond my wildest imaginations. In my time, the grandest of edifices were cathedrals, castles, and fortresses, each a testament to the strength and piety of the realm.

Yet here we are, discussing an arena that can house many thousands, all within a dome! A dome, I tell you, the likes of which would dwarf even the grandest hall in Hampton Court Palace. This structure, so named the O2, is said to be dedicated to merriment, music, and sport. A novel idea, I daresay, for in my time, we had to construct grandstands each time a tournament was held!

To consider that man could create such a building is a testament to the astounding progress that has been made. Indeed, the O2 Building would be a fitting symbol of majesty and power, a true wonder of the modern world. I wonder what festivities, what grand tournaments, and what feasts one might host within such a magnificent structure.

That is an amusing application of this AI capability. This AI “personality specialisation” can be used to improve the accuracy of an AI response, however.

Since (as discussed above) very controlling people are more likely to get an accurate handle on things, and very analytical people are more likely to drill down to the required level of detail, and very energetic people are more likely to intuit what could possibly derail a venture, asking an AI chatbot to respond as on of these personality types, can be used to enhance the quality of the chatbot response.

Drawing on the Experience of Industry Leaders

In this previous post, I illustrated how ChatGPT can break down a generally stated web-design problem into discrete components of logic, control and motivation.

Based on the above theory, we can do the same thing again, but this time specify personalities who are well-suited to respond to each discrete problem component. This provides a richer result.

The following question was posed to ChatGPT.

1.3 Background

Solar Based Energy, Inc. (SBE) sells state-of-the-art alternative energy systems utilizing wind and solar power. SBE customers include both individuals and businesses interested in incorporating wind or solar energy sources into either new or existing construction. SBE has identified two trends that they believe will cause explosive growth in the demand for their products.

The first is the continuing energy crisis in the western United States.

The second is the maturation of fuel cell technology which provides a feasible system for storing excess power generation for later use.

SBE sells state-of-the-art alternative energy systems utilizing wind and solar power. SBE customers include both individuals and businesses interested in incorporating wind or solar energy sources into either new or existing construction. SBE has identified several trends that they believe will cause explosive growth in the demand for their products. They include the growing consumer unease with deregulated energy markets, the potential for disruptions to energy imports, and the maturation of fuel cell technology which provides a feasible system for storing excess power generation for later use.

(plus the rest of the problem statement, quoted in the previous post)

As Jeff Bezos, describe the maximum business benefit that could be accrued from the new website.
As Elon Musk, describe the business rules that should be applied to the new website.
As Donald D. Knuth, describe what error handling and exception management should be applied to the new website.

ChatGPT responded as follows.

As Jeff Bezos:

The development of a new website will leverage digital technology to streamline operations and maximize customer reach for SBE. Firstly, by amalgamating the two existing websites into a single platform, we can offer a comprehensive experience to both existing and prospective customers. This could lead to increased customer engagement and potentially boost sales, as customers would now have direct access to product information and ordering.

Moreover, consolidating the two Oracle databases into one will help to maintain data consistency, reduce redundancy, and ultimately lead to better decision-making based on accurate data. Also, by including a language translation feature, we can cater to a global audience, further expanding our market and brand reach. Overall, these improvements could lead to an increase in sales, customer satisfaction, and operational efficiency, resulting in higher profits and competitive advantage in the long run.

As Elon Musk:

Implementing effective business rules for the new SBE website would create a more structured, efficient, and user-friendly environment.

First, there should be business rules to ensure accurate, consistent, and up-to-date product information. This could be automated updates or periodic checks by the product owners.

Secondly, access control rules should be applied to ensure only authorized personnel can modify product information or process orders.

The ordering process itself should follow a set of business rules to guide the user seamlessly through selecting a product to final purchase. This could include business rules around the shopping cart functionality, checkout, and payment procedures.

Additionally, consider business rules to manage customer interactions – such as handling inquiries, complaints, or reviews. These business rules should aim to provide a responsive and supportive customer service experience.

Lastly, remember to include business rules to comply with legal and regulatory requirements, particularly in relation to data privacy and security.

As Donald D. Knuth:

Error handling and exception management are crucial in ensuring the reliability and robustness of any system.

For user input, validation should be done at the client-side to catch and correct errors early. This can range from simple checks like verifying that required fields are filled, to more complex validations like ensuring entered data is in the correct format.

When errors occur, the system should catch them and, when possible, recover gracefully. This could mean rolling back transactions to ensure data integrity or re-trying failed operations. For critical errors, the system should log detailed error information and then alert the appropriate personnel.

To ensure proper exception management, implement a centralized error handling system that provides a unified way to handle and log exceptions. This can greatly simplify the process of diagnosing and correcting issues when they occur.

Lastly, always plan for worst-case scenarios. Implement backup and restore functionality to protect against data loss, and design the system to be resilient even in the face of unexpected failures.

Remember that users should be shielded from the complexity of the system. Any errors or exceptions they encounter should be communicated with clear and user-friendly messages that guide them on what to do next.

These responses compare favourably and are far more accurate and detailed than the answers than the vanilla-flavoured responses that ChatGPT gives if asked the same questions without specifying the responder personalities.

Conclusion

When asking ChatGPT for advice or analysis, specify the respondent persona as the best person you can think of to answer the question.

This technique can be effectively applied using a systematic problem decomposition method, allowing different “people” to address different aspects of the question.

Qualitative Systems Analysis using ChatGPT

June 9, 2023June 16, 2023 Edward Chalk

Qualitative Systems Analysis

Every system, be it a tree, a software system, a car engine, or an economy, requires three fundamental interacting elements to make the system work:

Energy source to power the system: E.g. sunlight (tree), business motivation (software system), petrol (car engine), capital (economy).
Internal logic that defines the interactions within the system: E.g. cell specialisation (tree), business rules (software system), implementation of basic engineering principles (car engine), legal definition of corporate financial entities (economy).
Controls to ensure system activity does not exceed safe operating limits: E.g. growth-regulating hormones (tree), error handling and exception management (software system), rev limiters (car engine), fiscal policy (economy).

Therefore, to make an accurate analytical assessment of any system, first the energy aspects, logical aspects and control aspects of the system must each be identified and independently considered. All these considerations must then be combined into a holistic picture in order to reach a correct understanding of the optimal way in which to progress the current situation and achieve the optimal outcome.

Qualitative Systems Analysis using ChatGPT

Using ChatGPT, it is possible to identify and separate the three primary constituents, energy, logic and control, of many qualitative analytical questions.

For example, regarding a family law case, the three aspects of energy, logic and control, may be translated to:

Emotion, since emotion is the source of personal and inter-personal energy.
Logic, i.e. pure legal analysis.
The moralistic aspect of the situation, since the purpose of morals is to provide controls within society.

New York Bar Exam

For instance, consider the following sample question for the New York Bar Exam.

One year ago, Joan executed a will in which she left her entire estate to her only
daughter. At that time, Joan’s daughter, Joan’s granddaughter (the only child of Joan’s
daughter), Joan’s only son, and Joan’s three grandsons (children of her son) were
living. Joan’s son and her three grandsons had extensive criminal records for theft and
burglary.

Joan was not close to her children and grandchildren. She rarely saw any of them, even
on holidays, although she regularly sent them birthday cards and inexpensive presents.
Three years ago, Joan’s doctor had prescribed her a drug that was known to produce
hallucinations in some patients. Joan had difficulties with the drug and began to
experience frequent hallucinations leading to her delusion that the male line of her
family was “cursed” by Martians. Nonetheless, she continued taking the drug because it
was the only medication available to control her medical condition.

When she went to her lawyer to draft her will, she told her lawyer that she wanted to
leave all her property to her daughter and nothing to her male line. She explained,
“Leaving the males in my family anything valuable would be a complete waste on
burglars and thieves.”

For the last five years, Joan had regularly had lunch with several friends. All of them
were much wealthier than Joan. At these lunches, she often told her friends that she
was a “multimillionaire” and owned both a “luxurious” home and a “very expensive” car.
They had no reason to doubt Joan’s claims because she had never invited them to her
home and she took cabs to their lunches. In fact, Joan was never a millionaire, and she
never owned either a luxurious home or an expensive automobile. She lived in a
modest apartment, and her primary source of income was her Social Security benefits.
She monitored her bank account regularly and reconciled her bank statement every
month.

One month ago, Joan died, survived by her daughter, her granddaughter, her son, and
her three grandsons. At her death, Joan owned no significant assets other than her
bank account containing $100,000.

Under the insane-delusion rule, is Joan’s will invalid? Explain.
Do these facts establish that Joan’s will is invalid because she lacked the general
mental capacity to execute a will? Explain.
Which, if any, of Joan’s surviving relatives has standing to contest Joan’s will?
Explain.

Having identified the primary qualitative elements of emotion, logic and morals, we can now ask ChatGPT to split out these elements separately from the above complex legal question:

Which gives the following results.

Moralistic Question: Is it morally justifiable for Joan to exclude her male line of family members from her will based on their criminal records?
Analytical Question: Does Joan’s belief in the Martian curse, resulting from her hallucinations caused by medication, meet the requirements for the insane-delusion rule to invalidate her will?
Emotional Question: Considering the relationship dynamics and Joan’s statements about her wealth to her friends, how might the surviving relatives emotionally react to the distribution of Joan’s estate and who would have standing to contest her will?

Each of these questions can be independently analysed, and then their analysis combined, to reach a whole decision that takes into account all aspects of the situation. As an aside, it is interesting to note that legal precedence and local law is primarily applicable to the Analytical Question only, and the other questions are more a matter of subjective debate and eloquence.

Developing a New Website

The following software development problem statement is taken from the Ohio State University Computer Science and Engineering Department website.

1.3 Background

Solar Based Energy, Inc. (SBE) sells state-of-the-art alternative energy systems utilizing wind and solar power. SBE customers include both individuals and businesses interested in incorporating wind or solar energy sources into either new or existing construction. SBE has identified two trends that they believe will cause explosive growth in the demand for their products. The first is the continuing energy crisis in the western United States. The second is the maturation of fuel cell technology which provides a feasible system for storing excess power generation for later use. SBE sells state-of-the-art alternative energy systems utilizing wind and solar power. SBE customers include both individuals and businesses interested in incorporating wind or solar energy sources into either new or existing construction. SBE has identified several trends that they believe will cause explosive growth in the demand for their products. They include the growing consumer unease with deregulated energy markets, the potential for disruptions to energy imports, and the maturation of fuel cell technology which provides a feasible system for storing excess power generation for later use.

Because of the innovative and technical nature of their products, SBE employs sales agents who can guide customers through the process of choosing an alternative energy system. Other SBE employees are identified as a product “owners”. The product owner is the expert on a particular product or product line. As the authoritative source of product information he produces whitepapers–highly technical and focused documents on product specifications.

As alternative energy becomes more mainstream, SBE anticipates changes in the needs of their customers. Some customers will be more knowledgeable and will need less assistance from a sales agent. Expanding sales outside the United States will drive the need to service customers in languages other than English.

Currently there are two separate web sites. The public website (www.sbe.com) is static HTML. It provides general information about SBE and its products. Customers who are interested in ordering are provided contact information for the nearest SBE sales office. The internal website (www.sbesales.com) is restricted to SBE employees and provides detailed product information. Sales orders are placed by agents on this site. Two different Oracle databases underlie these sites.

Problems with the current system include

the information available on the public website is too limited and the user cannot immediately place an order
the existence of two databases means information is often inconsistent or incorrect
users who need more technical information have difficulty accessing the relevant whitepapers
sales agents have difficulty reaching product owners

Imogene I. Ives, President of SBE has requested that an analysis be done with a view to reengineering the current sales system. The new system should allow customers direct access to product information and ordering as well as continuing to provide support to the existing sales agent network.

1.4 Project Scope
The scope of this project is a web-based system that supports the marketing of SBE products directly to customers as well as through the existing sales agent network. Advertising of products, inventory control, and account billing are not part of this project.

The two current web sites will be replaced by this new system. In addition, changes to the logical and physical design of the current databases are expected. The actual implementation of a new database system is not part of this project. A web search engine and language translator will be obtained as purchased components for the new system. Their internal details are not part of this project. Issues of website security, other than password protection within the site, are not part of this project.

Asking ChatGPT (with a bit of prompting) to split out questions that address the business benefit (energy), business rules (logic) and controls (error handling and exception management), of this problem statement, results in the following output.

(The initial output wasn’t so great, so ChatGPT needed another prompt.)

This resulted in the following output from ChatGPT:

What is the maximum business benefit that can be accrued from the new website?

User Experience: A new, intuitive, and streamlined website can improve the user experience for both individual consumers and businesses. This can lead to an increase in customer retention, engagement, and ultimately sales.
Accessibility of Information: By making more technical information and whitepapers easily accessible to users, the company can attract more knowledgeable customers and become a go-to resource in the alternative energy field.
Direct Ordering: The ability for customers to place orders directly through the website could lead to increased sales and operational efficiency.
International Expansion: With the anticipation of expanding sales outside the United States, a multilingual website can help in capturing a larger global market share.

What business rules should be applied to the new website?

User Roles and Access: Rules should be established regarding the various roles and permissions of users, including customers, sales agents, and product owners. This includes access to certain areas of the website and what actions they can perform.
Content Management: Business rules should govern how information is updated and maintained on the website, especially given the existence of two databases. This includes procedures for adding, modifying, and deleting information to ensure consistency and accuracy.
Order Processing: Clear rules should be established regarding how orders are placed, processed, and tracked through the website.
Data Integrity: Guidelines should be established to maintain the consistency, accuracy, and reliability of the data across the website and databases.

What error handling and exception management should be applied to the new website?

User Errors: The website should have a mechanism to handle user errors, such as incorrect form entries or invalid search queries, in a friendly and informative way.
System Errors: There should be robust exception handling for any system errors that might occur. This includes providing informative error messages and having fallback measures in place to maintain website functionality.
Database Errors: Given the current issue with inconsistencies in the two databases, mechanisms should be in place to handle database errors and inconsistencies.
Security Exceptions: Although the project scope explicitly states that website security is not part of this project, basic security measures and error handling should still be considered, such as password errors, unauthorized access attempts, and maintaining user session integrity.

By considering each of these questions separately, and allocating the questions to staff who are qualified to understand the best way to analyse and respond to each question, it would be possible the imaginary business mentioned in the problem statement, to create a robust, scalable website that would maximise company growth and minimise exceptions generated by bad website design and implementation decisions.

Meaningful opinions and Transactional Analysis

November 22, 2021 Edward Chalk 1 Comment

Meaningful opinions and Transactional Analysis

Most arguments can be rephrased along the following lines.

Person A: It’s like this.

Person B: No, it’s like this.

Person A: I know for an absolute fact that I’m right!

Person B: Don’t be silly, that’s just your opinion. In reality I am correct.

It is often impossible to prove objectively if Person A or Person B is correct, because there is insufficient information available to prove the case one way or another. Subsequently we may use consistency as a measure of opinion-validity. This means to say, if someone is prepared to live consistently with their stated opinion, then we say their opinion is valid, because they are prepared to stand by it. However, if someone is not prepared to live consistently with their stated opinion, then we say their opinion is artificial and casuistic.

In other words, if an opinion expresses a person’s innermost convictions, then we see that as a real opinion. On the other hand, if an opinion is stated casually and conveniently, but is not something the speaker is prepared to live by, we discount this opinion as empty talk.

Using Transactional Analysis terminology, it is possible to express this qualitative assessment in a quantitative manner.

Second order psychoanalysis

The high level psychoanalytic model suggested by Transactional Analysis is very simple and consists of three ego states: Parent, Adult and Child (see here). Human behaviour is far more complex than this simple model suggests, however.

One way in which Transactional Analysis theory refines the three ego-state model is by introducing second-order ego-states (or, sub ego-states). To wit, just as the whole psyche is understood to consist of three ego-states, so too each ego-state is understood to consist of a further three sub ego-states. (Transactional Analysis theory further suggests that each sub ego-state can be further subdivided into sub sub ego-states, and so on, to a very low level of granularity.)

This can be diagrammatically represented as follows.

Practically speaking, this means that each ego state (or, state of mind) has its own

Controls: Sub-Parent
Centre of reasoning: Sub-Adult
Emotions: Sub-Child

In this way, each ego state (or, state of mind) has its own “life” and can function independently of the entire psyche. It is worthwhile noting that this is one of the most remarkable and significant suggestions made by Transactional Analysis theory.

An important ramification of this theory is that we understand that if someone hears voices in their head arguing with each other, then that person has a mental illness. According to Transactional Analysis it is perfectly normal for a person to experience inner dispute, since different ego-states may entertain different opinions. Most normal people do not “hear” these “voices” however, as the discussion is either peacefully internally resolved (by the Adult) or swept under the carpet by a compensatory mechanism.

Portrait of a second order ego-state

The following images demonstrate identification of the Parent, Adult and Child sub ego-states within an actual child. These sub ego-states, which represent a child’s initial response to life, are initially formed in childhood, but persist into adulthood.

Parent in the Child
A child displays parental behaviour, but in a childlike manner.

Adult in the Child
A child displays thoughtfulness, yet at the same time remains a child.

Child in the Child
The child’s pristine wonder and emotion.

Alternatively, we can identify Parent, Adult and Child sub ego-states within the Parent.

Adult in the Parent
The Adult in the Parent occurs when a parent assists their child by being rational.

Child in the Parent
The Child in the Parent occurs when a parent supports their child in an emotional manner.

Parent in the Parent
The Parent in the Parent occurs when a parent seeks to modify their child’s behaviour by asserting their parental rights.

A balanced opinion

Each ego-state (or, state of mind) has its own faculty of thought (or, point of view) and will tend to assess a particular situation in its own idiosyncratic manner.

The Child ego-state will appraise a situation from the perspective of a child.
The Parent ego-state will appraise a situation from the perspective of a parent.
The Adult ego-state will appraise a situation impassively.

How then does the mind come to a definite conclusion concerning what is happening and what action to take (if any)?

Transactional Analysis suggests that in order to arrive at a balanced response, the Adult should act as the arbitrator between all thoughts and feelings in the psyche. In other words, the person should reflect, “I know that I can feel about this situation in various different ways, I believe the correct response is to balance these different feelings in the following manner.”

We can diagrammatically represent this mode of thinking as follows.

When a person expresses a balanced opinion, all ego states (frames of mind) are in agreement that this opinion represents their point-of-view. Thus the opinion is a “real” opinion, as it is an expression of the totality of the person and is something that the person would be prepared to live by.

A one-sided view

It is possible that instead of using the Adult as an inner mediator, a person could choose to respond to a particular situation from only one ego state, to the exclusion of all others. When someone responds to a situation from only one ego-state (frame of mind), then we say that this opinion is trivial and off-hand. Because the opinion is just something the person “can say”, rather than something that reflects everything the person “could say”, it is a throw-away comment.

When a person responds from only one ego-state then we say they are being unreal. For example, we may say:

Child-centric opinion: He’s only saying that because he wants to have a good time.
Parent-centric opinion: He’s only saying that because he’s angry.
Adult-centric opinion: He’s only saying that because he hasn’t thought about who his decision will affect.

An opinion that is stated from only one internal point-of-view is hollow and insincere, however compelling it is from that point of view and however forcefully it may be stated.

In summary

We can differentiate between a sincere opinion and a throw-away comment by assessing whether the person who stated that opinion would be prepared to stand by their principles even if this would cause them loss.

In Transactional Analysis terms, this idea can be formulated as follows:

If an opinion stated by a person represents a consensus of the opinions of all ego-states, then this is a real opinion that is stated by the wholeness of that person. However, if an opinion is only representative of one aspect of that individual’s personality, then this is a throw-away comment that other facets of that person will override, when convenient.

Exercise

Go through the following thought-drill.

When was the last time you expressed a strong opinion?
Would you live by that principle, even if this caused you significant loss?
Can you demonstrate to yourself how you have stood firm by this principle?
If not, which particular frame of mind were you in when you stated the opinion?

Understanding why we express opinions can help us integrate our thoughts and live a fuller and more wholesome life.

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